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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–2 · DRAW 48% · Value: Over 2.5 72%
CONF 58 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 16 · FRI, 17 JUL · 00:30 LOCAL
ST. LOUIS CITY
7TH · 25 PTS · LAST 5:
W W W D W
FT
3 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 2-1
SPORTING KANSAS CITY
L W L W W
· 15TH · 14 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 28' Jeong Sang-bin ⚽ 36' Marcel Hartel ⚽ 86' Eduard Löwen (P)
GOALS
⚽ 42' Capita ⚽ 76' Dejan Joveljić
Marcel Hartel
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Marcel Hartel
St. Louis City · Captain · 95 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 26% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
8.3
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
St. Louis CITY SC vs. Sporting Kansas City | Full Match Highlights | 5-Goal Return!
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.51
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.98
54%
BALL POSSESSION %
46%
19
TOTAL SHOTS
12
6
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
86%
PASS ACCURACY %
80%
5
CORNERS
6
KEY EVENTS 18 events
  1. 28'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jeong Sang-bin
    ST.
  2. 36'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Marcel Hartel · assist Simon Becher
    ST.
  3. 42'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Capita
    SPO
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Ian James · assist Jacob Davis
    SPO
  5. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Conrad Wallem · assist Rafael Santos
    ST.
  6. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Jayden Reid · assist Emir Karić
    SPO
  7. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Jeong Sang-bin · assist Miguel Perez
    ST.
  8. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Or Blorian · assist Ethan Bartlow
    SPO
  9. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Zorhan Bassong · assist Kwaku Agyabeng
    SPO
  10. 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Dejan Joveljić · assist Manu García
    SPO
  11. 78'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Capita
    SPO
  12. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Capita · assist Stephen Afrifa
    SPO
  13. 86'
    Goal · Penalty
    Eduard Löwen
    ST.
  14. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Eduard Löwen · assist Tomáš Ostrák
    ST.
  15. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Tomas Totland · assist Jaziel Orozco
    ST.
  16. 90'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Benjamin Lundt
    ST.
  17. 90'+6
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Simon Becher · assist Palmer Ault
    ST.
  18. 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card
    Daniel Edelman
    ST.
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ST. LOUIS CITY AVG 7.7
SPORTING KANSAS CITY AVG 7.2
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.5
xG
1.0
19.0
TOTAL SHOTS
12.0
6.0
ON TARGET
3.0
8.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
5.0
BLOCKED
5.0
POSSESSION
54.0%
POSSESSION %
46.0%
478.0
PASSES
396.0
86.0%
PASS ACCURACY
80.0%
SET PIECES
5.0
CORNERS
6.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
12.0
FOULS
11.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
1.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ST. LOUIS CITY 9 shots
Eduard Löwen
2/4
Marcel Hartel
2/3
Jeong Sang-bin
1/2
SPORTING KANSAS CITY 4 shots
Dejan Joveljić
2/2
Capita
1/2
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.51 – 0.98
2 1.5 1 0.5 2.5 0.0 HT 28' 36' 86' 42' 76' H 2.51 A 0.98 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 56%
44% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-3 vs 4-2-3-1
3-4-3
4-2-3-1
39
BENJAMIN
 7.7
21
DANTE POL
32
TIMO BAUM
5
LUKAS MAC
14
TOMAS TOT
 7.2
24
DANIEL ED
 7.2
10
EDUARD Lö
6
CONRAD WA
 8.3
17
MARCEL HA
11
SIMON BEC
 8.0
77
JEONG SAN
 7.0
30
STEFAN CL
99
JAYDEN RE
5
OR BLORIA
15
JANSEN MI
2
IAN JAMES
 7.2
22
ZORHAN BA
4
LASSE BER
11
CALVIN HA
 7.2
6
MANU GARC
 7.2
7
CAPITA
 7.3
9
DEJAN JOV
SUBSTITUTES · ST. LOUIS CITY
28
Miguel Perez
M
59
Mykhi Joyner
M
7
Tomáš Ostrák
M
20
Rafael Santo...
D
99
Jaziel Orozc...
D
22
Kyle Hiebert
D
27
Fallou Fall
D
31
Christian Ol...
G
29
Palmer Ault
M
COACH: Yoann Damet
SUBSTITUTES · SPORTING KANSAS CITY
93
Shapi Suleym...
F
14
Macielo Tsch...
M
20
Kwaku Agyabe...
M
16
Jacob Bartle...
D
8
Jacob Davis
M
23
Ethan Bartlo...
D
18
Emir Karić
D
1
John Pulskam...
G
17
Stephen Afri...
F
COACH: Raphael Wicky
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ST. · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

SPO · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
A. Chapman
—
ST. MANAGER
Yoann Damet
head coach
SPO MANAGER
Raphael Wicky
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
2
ST. WINS
3
DRAWS
4
SPO WINS
22.2%
33.3%
44.4%
16 – 18
TOTAL GOALS · 9 MEETINGS
3.78
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
15 May 2025
St. Louis City
2 – 2
Sporting Kansas City
D
06 Apr 2025
Sporting Kansas City
2 – 0
St. Louis City
L
29 Sep 2024
St. Louis City
3 – 1
Sporting Kansas City
W
21 Jul 2024
Sporting Kansas City
1 – 1
St. Louis City
D
21 Apr 2024
Sporting Kansas City
3 – 3
St. Louis City
D
ST. LOUIS CITY LAST 5 OVERALL
W W W D W
SPORTING KANSAS CITY LAST 5 OVERALL
L W L W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–2 · result locked
ST. LOUIS CITY #7
Won · already at 25 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
SPORTING KANSAS CITY #15
Lost · already at 14 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 16 10 3 3 +21 33
D L W L W
1 Nashville SC 17 12 3 2 +21 39
L W W W W
2 Los Angeles FC 18 10 3 5 +16 33
W W W W L
2 Inter Miami 17 11 4 2 +13 37
W W W W W
3 San Jose Earthquakes 17 10 3 4 +15 33
D L W L L
3 New England Revolution 16 9 2 5 +7 29
W D L W L
4 Chicago Fire 16 8 2 6 +8 26
L L W W W
4 Real Salt Lake 16 8 2 6 +4 26
L L D W W
5 Houston Dynamo 16 8 2 6 -1 26
W D D W L
5 New York City FC 17 7 4 6 +7 25
W W L D W
6 FC Dallas 17 7 5 5 +7 26
L D W W L
6 Charlotte 17 7 4 6 +3 25
W D W W L
7 St. Louis City 17 7 4 6 0 25
W W W W D
7 FC Cincinnati 17 6 5 6 -1 23
L W W D L
8 New York Red Bulls 17 6 4 7 -11 22
L L W D W
8 Seattle Sounders 16 7 3 6 -1 24
L L L L L
9 Minnesota United FC 17 6 5 6 -5 23
D L D L L
9 DC United 17 5 7 5 -3 22
W D D D L
10 Portland Timbers 17 6 3 8 -1 21
W D W L L
10 Orlando City SC 17 6 2 9 -16 20
W W L D W
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 18 5 6 7 -5 21
D L L D W
11 Columbus Crew 17 5 4 8 -2 19
W L W D L
12 Toronto FC 17 3 7 7 -8 16
L D D L L
12 San Diego 17 5 5 7 +3 20
W L L D W
13 Colorado Rapids 17 6 1 10 +1 19
L W L L W
13 CF Montreal 17 4 3 10 -11 15
L L D D L
14 Austin 17 4 5 8 -13 17
L W L L L
14 Philadelphia Union 17 3 4 10 -9 13
W W L D L
15 Sporting Kansas City 17 4 2 11 -26 14
L W L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 17 3 3 11 -13 12
L D L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card · Daniel Edelman
  • 90'+6
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Simon Becher
  • 90'
    Card · Yellow Card · Benjamin Lundt
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Tomas Totland
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Eduard Löwen
  • 86'
    Goal · Penalty · Eduard Löwen
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Capita
  • 78'
    Card · Yellow Card · Capita
  • 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Dejan Joveljić
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Zorhan Bassong
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Or Blorian
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Jeong Sang-bin
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Jayden Reid
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Conrad Wallem
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Ian James
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 1
  • 42'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Capita
  • 36'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Marcel Hartel
  • 28'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jeong Sang-bin
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
ST. LOUIS CITY WIN
1.43
69.9% implied
↑ best 1.50
DRAW
4.87
20.5% implied
↑ best 5.20
SPORTING KANSAS WIN
6.08
16.4% implied
↑ best 6.75

Market favors St. Louis City. AI projects DRAW 48% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DRAW 48% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.43 4.85 6.20 +27.4%
888Sport 1.40 4.60 5.75 +26.3%
Bet365 1.44 5.00 6.00 +28.0%
Betano 1.50 5.00 6.50 +28.0%
Betfair 1.44 4.75 6.00 +26.9%
BetVictor 1.44 4.80 6.00 +27.2%
Dafabet 1.46 5.20 6.20 +28.8%
Marathonbet 1.43 4.90 5.90 +27.6%
Pinnacle 1.45 5.06 6.53 +28.2%
SBO 1.39 4.49 5.42 +25.7%
Superbet 1.45 5.10 6.00 +28.4%
Unibet 1.41 5.00 6.75 +28.0%
William Hill 1.40 4.60 5.80 +26.3%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.10 U 6.42
2.5 O 1.38 U 2.97
3.5 O 1.96 U 1.81
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.51 10 bks
NO
2.40 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 3.46
Away -0.5 2.79
Away -0.75 2.50
Away -1 2.21
Away -1.25 1.89
Away -1.5 1.70
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.