GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–3 · CHARLOTTE 95% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 20 · WED, 19 AUG · 23:30 LOCAL
TORONTO FC
10TH · 24 PTS · LAST 5:
W W D L D
FT
3 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 1-2
CHARLOTTE
W W L W D
· 5TH · 32 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 13' Markus Cimermancic ⚽ 76' D. Salloi ⚽ 90' Niklas Dorsch
GOALS
⚽ 8' R. Aloko ⚽ 20' Idan Toklomati Jorno ⚽ 58' H. Kessler
R. Aloko
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
R. Aloko
Charlotte · 69 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 13% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.3
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.86
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.16
46%
BALL POSSESSION %
54%
15
TOTAL SHOTS
13
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
9
89%
PASS ACCURACY %
91%
6
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 8'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    R. Aloko · assist A. Westwood
    CHA
  2. 13'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Markus Cimermancic · assist Josh Sargent
    TOR
  3. 20'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Idan Toklomati Jorno · assist Liel Abada
    CHA
  4. 56'
    Card · Red Card
    Walker Zimmerman
    TOR
  5. 58'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    H. Kessler · assist A. Westwood
    CHA
  6. 60'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Alonso Coello · assist Matheus Pereira
    TOR
  7. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    R. Aloko · assist Tyger Smalls
    CHA
  8. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Liel Abada · assist A. Saint-Maximin
    CHA
  9. 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    D. Salloi · assist T. Corbeanu
    TOR
  10. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Idan Toklomati Jorno · assist Archie Goodwin
    CHA
  11. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Pep Biel · assist L. de la Torre
    CHA
  12. 82'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Markus Cimermancic · assist D. Etienne
    TOR
  13. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    B. Kuscevic · assist Zane Monlouis
    TOR
  14. 85'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Matheus Pereira
    TOR
  15. 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Niklas Dorsch · assist D. Etienne
    TOR
  16. 90'+4
    Subst · Substitution 5
    B. Bronico · assist D. Diani
    CHA
  17. 90'+5
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Niklas Dorsch · assist Kobe Franklin
    TOR
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
TORONTO FC AVG 7.3
CHARLOTTE AVG 7.5
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.9
xG
1.2
15.0
TOTAL SHOTS
13.0
5.0
ON TARGET
9.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
4.0
BLOCKED
0.0
POSSESSION
46.0%
POSSESSION %
54.0%
400.0
PASSES
486.0
89.0%
PASS ACCURACY
91.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
3.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
10.0
FOULS
10.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
0.0
1.0
RED CARDS
0.0
6.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
TORONTO FC 8 shots
Niklas Dorsch
1/2
Markus Cimermancic
2/2
Josh Sargent
1/2
T. Corbeanu
0/1
B. Kuscevic
0/1
CHARLOTTE 7 shots
H. Kessler
1/2
Idan Toklomati Jorno
2/2
A. Saint-Maximin
2/2
R. Aloko
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.86 – 1.16
1.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 1.9 0.0 HT 13' 76' 90' 8' 20' 58' H 1.86 A 1.16 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
4-2-3-1
4-3-3
1
LUKA GAVR
38
J. GILMAN
 6.9
13
B. KUSCEV
25
WALKER ZI
22
R. LARYEA
 7.9
6
NIKLAS DO
14
ALONSO CO
20
D. SALLOI
 7.3
71
MARKUS CI
 7.6
7
T. CORBEA
 6.9
9
JOSH SARG
1
K. KAHLIN
23
D. SCHNEG
3
T. REAM
 8.2
22
H. KESSLE
35
WILL CLEA
13
B. BRONIC
16
PEP BIEL
 7.3
8
A. WESTWO
11
LIEL ABAD
 7.0
9
IDAN TOKL
 8.3
37
R. ALOKO
SUBSTITUTES · TORONTO FC
99
Jules-Anthon...
F
11
D. Etienne
F
3
Matheus Pere...
D
78
Malik Henry
M
44
Raheem Edwar...
D
19
Kobe Frankli...
D
12
Zane Monloui...
D
23
William Yarb...
G
17
Emilio Arist...
F
COACH: Robin Fraser
SUBSTITUTES · CHARLOTTE
7
Archie Goodw...
F
10
A. Saint-Max...
F
28
D. Diani
M
17
L. de la Tor...
M
44
Morrison Agy...
D
4
A. Privett
D
14
N. Byrne
D
21
T. Miller
G
25
Tyger Smalls
F
COACH: Dean Smith
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
TOR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

CHA · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
A. Da Silva
—
TOR MANAGER
Robin Fraser
head coach
CHA MANAGER
Dean Smith
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
TOR WINS
1
DRAWS
5
CHA WINS
33.3%
11.1%
55.6%
12 – 15
TOTAL GOALS · 9 MEETINGS
3.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 9
16 May 2026
Charlotte
3 – 1
Toronto FC
L
26 Jul 2025
Charlotte
2 – 0
Toronto FC
L
31 May 2025
Toronto FC
0 – 2
Charlotte
L
13 Apr 2024
Charlotte
3 – 2
Toronto FC
L
09 Mar 2024
Toronto FC
1 – 0
Charlotte
W
TORONTO FC LAST 5 OVERALL
W W D L D
CHARLOTTE LAST 5 OVERALL
W W L W D
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–3 · result locked
TORONTO FC #10
Lost · already at 24 pts
CHARLOTTE #5
Lost · already at 32 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 20 12 4 4 +27 40
W L W D D
1 Nashville SC 21 15 4 2 +26 49
W W W D L
2 Houston Dynamo 21 12 2 7 +4 38
L W W W W
2 Inter Miami 21 11 6 4 +9 39
L D L D W
3 Los Angeles FC 22 10 5 7 +14 35
D L L D W
3 Chicago Fire 20 11 3 6 +11 36
D W W W L
4 New England Revolution 21 10 4 7 +7 34
D W L L D
4 San Jose Earthquakes 21 10 3 8 +6 33
L L L L D
5 FC Dallas 21 9 6 6 +4 33
L W W D L
5 Charlotte 21 9 5 7 +6 32
W D W L W
6 St. Louis City 21 9 6 6 +3 33
W D W D W
6 FC Cincinnati 21 8 7 6 +2 31
D W D W L
7 Colorado Rapids 21 9 1 11 +2 28
L W W W L
7 New York City FC 21 7 6 8 +5 27
D L L D W
8 New York Red Bulls 21 7 5 9 -12 26
D L L W L
8 Real Salt Lake 20 8 4 8 +2 28
L L D D L
9 Portland Timbers 21 8 4 9 +1 28
D W L W W
9 Orlando City SC 21 7 3 11 -17 24
W L D L W
10 Minnesota United FC 21 7 7 7 -2 28
W L D D D
10 Toronto FC 21 5 9 7 -6 24
W D W D L
11 San Diego 21 7 6 8 +5 27
W L W D W
11 DC United 21 5 9 7 -8 24
L L D D W
12 Philadelphia Union 21 5 6 10 -7 21
D D W W W
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 22 6 8 8 -5 26
D W L D D
13 Seattle Sounders 20 7 4 9 -5 25
D L L L L
13 CF Montreal 21 5 6 10 -10 21
D W D D L
14 Austin 21 5 6 10 -14 21
D W L L L
14 Columbus Crew 21 5 5 11 -6 20
L L L D W
15 Sporting Kansas City 20 4 3 13 -30 15
D L L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 20 5 3 12 -12 18
W W L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+5
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Niklas Dorsch
  • 90'+4
    Subst · Substitution 5 · B. Bronico
  • 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Niklas Dorsch
  • 85'
    Card · Yellow Card · Matheus Pereira
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · B. Kuscevic
  • 82'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Markus Cimermancic
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Pep Biel
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Idan Toklomati Jorno
  • 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal · D. Salloi
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Liel Abada
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · R. Aloko
  • 60'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Alonso Coello
  • 58'
    Goal · Normal Goal · H. Kessler
  • 56'
    Card · Red Card · Walker Zimmerman
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 2
  • 20'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Idan Toklomati Jorno
  • 13'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Markus Cimermancic
  • 8'
    Goal · Normal Goal · R. Aloko
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
TORONTO FC WIN
2.29
43.7% implied
↑ best 2.35
DRAW
3.59
27.9% implied
↑ best 3.75
CHARLOTTE WIN
2.87
34.8% implied
↑ best 3.00

Market favors Toronto FC. AI projects CHARLOTTE 95% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS CHARLOTTE 95% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.28 3.70 2.76 +58.8%
888Sport 2.20 3.60 2.75 +58.6%
Bet365 2.30 3.50 3.00 +61.7%
Betano 2.32 3.60 2.95 +61.1%
Betfair 2.30 3.75 2.80 +59.3%
BetVictor 2.30 3.60 2.80 +59.3%
Dafabet 2.32 3.60 3.00 +61.7%
Marathonbet 2.25 3.58 2.88 +60.3%
Pinnacle 2.35 3.69 2.97 +61.3%
SBO 2.31 3.44 2.73 +58.4%
Superbet 2.30 3.55 3.00 +61.7%
Unibet 2.28 3.50 2.88 +60.3%
William Hill 2.20 3.60 2.75 +58.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.19 U 4.53
2.5 O 1.63 U 2.25
3.5 O 2.54 U 1.49
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.53 10 bks
NO
2.38 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.81
Away -0.5 1.62
Away -0.75 1.45
Away -1 1.29
Away -1.25 1.24
Away -1.5 1.20
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.