GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · ASTON VILLA 41% · Value: Over 2.5 62%
CONF 58 FULL ANALYSIS →
Europa League · FINAL · WED, 20 MAY · 19:00 LOCAL
SC FREIBURG
7TH · 17 PTS · LAST 5:
W L W D L
FT
0 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 0-2
ASTON VILLA
W W D W L
· 2ND · 21 PTS · LAST 5
GOALS
⚽ 41' Youri Tielemans ⚽ 45+3' Emiliano Buendía ⚽ 58' Morgan Rogers
Youri Tielemans
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Youri Tielemans
Aston Villa · 88 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 40% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.5
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

91%
BALL POSSESSION %
68%
4
TOTAL SHOTS
17
2
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
309%
PASS ACCURACY %
306%
1
CORNERS
8
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 5'
    Card · Foul
    Philipp Treu
    SC
  2. 15'
    Card · Foul
    Emiliano Buendía
    AST
  3. 21'
    Card · Foul
    Matty Cash
    AST
  4. 41'
    Goal · 0-1
    Youri Tielemans · assist Morgan Rogers
    AST
  5. 45'+3
    Goal · 0-2
    Emiliano Buendía · assist John McGinn
    AST
  6. 58'
    Goal · 0-3
    Morgan Rogers · assist Emiliano Buendía
    AST
  7. 61'
    Subst
    Lucas Höler · assist Nicolas Höfler
    SC
  8. 61'
    Subst
    Max Rosenfelder · assist Philipp Lienhart
    SC
  9. 66'
    Subst
    Amadou Onana · assist Victor Lindelöf
    AST
  10. 73'
    Subst
    D. Scherhant · assist Vincenzo Grifo
    SC
  11. 73'
    Subst
    Jordy Makengo · assist Lukas Kübler
    SC
  12. 81'
    Subst
    Ian Maatsen · assist Lucas Digne
    AST
  13. 81'
    Subst
    Jadon Sancho · assist Emiliano Buendía
    AST
  14. 84'
    Card · Foul
    John McGinn
    AST
  15. 86'
    Subst
    Christian Günter · assist Niklas Beste
    SC
  16. 88'
    Subst
    Douglas Luiz · assist Youri Tielemans
    AST
  17. 88'
    Subst
    AST
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
SC FREIBURG AVG 6.9
ASTON VILLA AVG 7.9
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
4.0
TOTAL SHOTS
17.0
2.0
ON TARGET
6.0
2.0
OFF TARGET
6.0
0.0
BLOCKED
5.0
POSSESSION
91.0%
POSSESSION %
68.0%
367.0
PASSES
356.0
309.0%
PASS ACCURACY
306.0%
SET PIECES
1.0
CORNERS
8.0
16.0
OFFSIDES
9.0
DISCIPLINE
15.0
FOULS
15.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
3.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
SC FREIBURG 3 shots
Maximilian Rosenfelder
1/1
I. Matanović
0/1
Johan Manzambi
1/1
ASTON VILLA 8 shots
Emiliano Buendía
2/3
Morgan Rogers
2/3
Youri Tielemans
1/1
John McGinn
1/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 35%
65% A
6
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
1
NOAH ATUB
29
PHILIPP T
28
MATTHIAS
17
LUKAS KüB
3
PHILIPP L
27
NICOLAS H
8
MAXIMILIA
32
VINCENZO
44
JOHAN MAN
19
NIKLAS BE
 6.9
31
I. MATANO
23
EMILIANO
2
MATTY CAS
14
PAU TORRE
12
LUCAS DIG
4
EZRI KONS
8
YOURI TIE
3
VICTOR LI
27
MORGAN RO
10
EMILIANO
7
JOHN MCGI
11
OLLIE WAT
SUBSTITUTES · SC FREIBURG
43
Bruno Ogbus
D
37
Max Rosenfel...
D
33
Jordy Makeng...
D
5
Anthony Jung
D
30
Christian Gü...
D
6
Patrick Oste...
M
7
D. Scherhant
F
26
Emmanuel Lat...
F
9
Lucas Höler
F
22
Cyriaque Iri...
F
21
Florian Müll...
G
24
Jannik Huth
G
COACH: Julian Schuster
SUBSTITUTES · ASTON VILLA
31
Leon Bailey
F
40
Marco Bizot
G
26
Lamare Bogar...
M
24
Amadou Onana
M
22
Ian Maatsen
D
21
Douglas Luiz
M
19
Jadon Sancho
F
18
Tammy Abraha...
F
16
Andrés Garcí...
D
9
Harvey Ellio...
M
5
Diadié Samas...
D
64
James Wright
G
COACH: Unai Emery
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
SC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

AST · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
François Letexier, France
—
SC MANAGER
Julian Schuster
head coach
AST MANAGER
Unai Emery
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
SC WINS
1
DRAWS
0
AST WINS
100%
SC FREIBURG LAST 5 OVERALL
W L W D L
ASTON VILLA LAST 5 OVERALL
W W D W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 0–3 · result locked
SC FREIBURG #7
Lost · already at 17 pts
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
ASTON VILLA #2
Won · already at 21 pts
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Lyon 8 7 0 1 +13 21
W W W W L
2 Aston Villa 8 7 0 1 +8 21
W W W W W
3 FC Midtjylland 8 6 1 1 +10 19
W D W L W
4 Real Betis 8 5 2 1 +6 17
W L W W W
5 FC Porto 8 5 2 1 +6 17
W D W W D
6 SC Braga 8 5 2 1 +6 17
D W W D L
7 SC Freiburg 8 5 2 1 +6 17
L W W D W
8 AS Roma 8 5 1 2 +7 16
D W W W W
9 Genk 8 5 1 2 +4 16
W W L W W
10 Bologna 8 4 3 1 +7 15
W D W W D
11 VfB Stuttgart 8 5 0 3 +6 15
W L W W W
12 Ferencvarosi TC 8 4 3 1 +1 15
L D W D W
13 Nottingham Forest 8 4 2 2 +8 14
W L W W D
14 Plzen 8 3 5 0 +5 14
W D D D D
15 FK Crvena Zvezda 8 4 2 2 +1 14
D W W W W
16 Celta Vigo 8 4 1 3 +4 13
D W L L W
17 PAOK 8 3 3 2 +3 12
L W D D W
18 Lille 8 4 0 4 +3 12
W L L W L
19 Fenerbahçe 8 3 3 2 +3 12
D L W D D
20 Panathinaikos 8 3 3 2 +2 12
D D D W W
21 Celtic 8 3 2 3 -2 11
W D L W L
22 Ludogorets 8 3 1 4 -3 10
W L D W L
23 Dinamo Zagreb 8 3 1 4 -4 10
L W L L L
24 Brann 8 2 3 3 -2 9
L D L D D
25 BSC Young Boys 8 3 0 5 -6 9
L L W L L
26 Sturm Graz 8 2 1 5 -6 7
W L L L D
27 FCSB 8 2 1 5 -7 7
D L W L L
28 GO Ahead Eagles 8 2 1 5 -8 7
D L L L L
29 Feyenoord 8 2 0 6 -4 6
L W L L L
30 FC Basel 1893 8 2 0 6 -4 6
L L L L W
31 Red Bull Salzburg 8 2 0 6 -5 6
L W L L W
32 Rangers 8 1 1 6 -9 4
L W L D L
33 Nice 8 1 0 7 -8 3
L W L L L
34 Utrecht 8 0 1 7 -10 1
L L L L D
35 Malmo FF 8 0 1 7 -11 1
L L L L L
36 Maccabi Tel Aviv 8 0 1 7 -20 1
L L L L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 88'
    Subst
    10th Substitution
  • 88'
    Subst · Douglas Luiz
    9th Substitution
  • 86'
    Subst · Christian Günter
    8th Substitution
  • 84'
    Card · Foul · John McGinn
    4th Yellowcard
  • 81'
    Subst · Jadon Sancho
    7th Substitution
  • 81'
    Subst · Ian Maatsen
    6th Substitution
  • 73'
    Subst · Jordy Makengo
    4th Substitution
  • 73'
    Subst · D. Scherhant
    5th Substitution
  • 66'
    Subst · Amadou Onana
    3rd Substitution
  • 61'
    Subst · Max Rosenfelder
    2nd Substitution
  • 61'
    Subst · Lucas Höler
    1st Substitution
  • 58'
    Goal · 0-3 · Morgan Rogers
    3rd Goal
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 2
  • 45'+3
    Goal · 0-2 · Emiliano Buendía
    2nd Goal
  • 41'
    Goal · 0-1 · Youri Tielemans
    1st Goal
  • 21'
    Card · Foul · Matty Cash
    3rd Yellowcard
  • 15'
    Card · Foul · Emiliano Buendía
    2nd Yellowcard
  • 5'
    Card · Foul · Philipp Treu
    1st Yellowcard
33 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 33 BOOKMAKERS
SC FREIBURG WIN
5.54
18.1% implied
↑ best 6.30
DRAW
3.85
26% implied
↑ best 4.20
ASTON VILLA WIN
1.62
61.7% implied
↑ best 1.70

Market favors Aston Villa. AI projects ASTON VILLA 41% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ASTON VILLA 41% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 6.00 3.75 1.56 +11.3%
10Bet 5.50 3.80 1.60 +9.8%
1xbet 5.64 4.10 1.64 +10.3%
1xBet 5.69 4.13 1.67 +10.4%
888Sport 5.50 3.80 1.57 +9.8%
888Sport 5.00 3.80 1.62 +8.0%
Bet365 5.50 3.90 1.62 +9.8%
Betano 5.80 3.95 1.67 +10.8%
Betfair 5.50 3.75 1.55 +9.8%
Betfair 5.50 3.90 1.62 +9.8%
BetVictor 5.75 3.90 1.57 +10.6%
BetVictor 5.25 3.80 1.62 +9.0%
bwin 5.50 3.90 1.62 +9.8%
Cashpoint 5.88 4.00 1.60 +11.0%
CloudBet 6.15 3.95 1.60 +11.7%
Coral 5.50 3.90 1.61 +9.8%
Dafabet 5.40 3.85 1.68 +9.5%
Dafabet 5.40 3.85 1.68 +9.5%
Interwetten 5.50 3.55 1.70 +9.8%
Ladbrokes 5.50 3.90 1.61 +9.8%
Macauslot 5.40 3.53 1.52 +9.5%
Marathonbet 5.95 4.20 1.62 +11.2%
Marathonbet 5.50 4.05 1.68 +9.8%
MelBet 5.50 4.00 1.60 +9.8%
Pinnacle 6.30 4.05 1.61 +12.1%
Pinnacle 5.70 3.90 1.65 +10.5%
Sbo 4.55 3.36 1.64 +6.0%
SBO 4.55 3.36 1.64 +6.0%
Superbet 5.50 3.80 1.64 +9.8%
Unibet 6.00 3.85 1.60 +11.3%
Unibet 5.75 3.85 1.62 +10.6%
William Hill 5.00 3.80 1.62 +8.0%
WilliamHill 5.50 3.80 1.57 +9.8%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.30 U 3.42
2.5 O 1.95 U 1.86
3.5 O 3.36 U 1.31
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.92 19 bks
NO
1.82 19 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.19
Away -0.5 1.15
Away -0.75 1.08
Away -1 1.00
Away -1.5 1.02
Away +0 1.22
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.