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Liga MX · APERTURA - 3 · SAT, 01 AUG · 01:00 LOCAL
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PUEBLA
FT
1 – 1
FULL TIME
GUADALAJARA CHIVAS
⚽ 26' Eduardo Mustre
GOALS
⚽ 63' Roberto Alvarado
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 38/100 LOW
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
PUE
1 – 1
GUA
most likely scoreline · 13.7% probability
AI PICKS DRAW TO WIN 38%
FT 1 – 1
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 1 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
PUE WIN 32%
DRAW 38%
GUA WIN 30%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — 12

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 62% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 62% avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Early in first half, scoreless so far; Chivas' recent road weakness and Puebla home struggles suggest a draw is likeliest outcome.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY PUEBLA CHALLENGED
32%
Early in first half, scoreless so far; Chivas' recent road weakness and Puebla home struggles suggest a draw is likeliest outcome.
+30.0%
Both teams' recent form poor (Puebla LWLLL, Chivas WLLDW) — quality is low
+25.0%
H2H strongly favours Chivas (3W in last 4, including 5-0 away win Apr 2026), but Puebla won 1-0 at home Oct 2024
+20.0%
Puebla home form terrible (LDLLL), Chivas away form abysmal (DLDLL) — mutual weakness cancels home edge
+15.0%
WHY GUADALAJARA CHIVAS CHALLENGED
30%

AI reasoning narrative not yet generated for this team.

🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 26' EDUARDO MU ⚽ 63' ROBERTO AL
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 2 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 13.7%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
13.5
13.4
6.6
2.2
0.5
0.1
·
1
13.7
13.5
6.7
2.2
0.6
0.1
·
2
6.9
6.8
3.4
1.1
0.3
·
·
3
2.3
2.3
1.1
0.4
0.1
·
·
4
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.1
·
·
·
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
1 — 0 13.7%
0 — 0 13.5%
1 — 1 13.5%
0 — 1 13.4%
2 — 0 6.9%
Top 5 = 61.0% · rest 39.0%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
5.43
32.0%
3.13
+73.6%
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.42
70.0%
1.43
+69.1%
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
4.30
38.0%
2.63
+63.4%
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.70
48.0%
2.08
-18.4%
—
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.13
68.0%
1.47
-22.9%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.18
62.0%
1.61
-26.7%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.62
42.0%
2.38
-32.0%
—
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.52
30.0%
3.33
-54.4%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.