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Copa Libertadores · GROUP STAGE - 6 · THU, 28 MAY · 00:30 LOCAL
← Match Page
PENAROL
⏱ KICK-OFF IN
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HOURS
:
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MINS
:
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SECS
Thu, 28 May · 00:30
SANTA FE
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
PRE-MATCH MODEL
CONF 38/100 LOW
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
PEN
1 – 0
SAN
most likely scoreline · 16.5% probability
AI PICKS PENAROL TO WIN 48%
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

PRE-MATCH
PEN WIN 48%
DRAW 28%
SAN WIN 24%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — 1X

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 76% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 76% avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Thin data and weak recent form on both sides; treat as near toss-up with slight home edge.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY PENAROL FAVORED
48%
Penarol home form DL is weak; only 2 home matches available — insufficient signal
+20.0%
WHY SANTA FE CHALLENGED
24%
Santa Fe ranked higher (3rd vs 4th) with +2 GD edge, but recent form WDLL is concerning
+25.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • Very limited season data (4 GF, 7 GA each) and no xG stats — confidence capped at 38%
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 0 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 16.5%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
15.0
12.0
4.8
1.3
0.3
·
·
1
16.5
13.2
5.3
1.4
0.3
·
·
2
9.1
7.2
2.9
0.8
0.2
·
·
3
3.3
2.7
1.1
0.3
0.1
·
·
4
0.9
0.7
0.3
0.1
·
·
·
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
1 — 0 16.5%
0 — 0 15.0%
1 — 1 13.2%
0 — 1 12.0%
2 — 0 9.1%
Top 5 = 65.6% · rest 34.4%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
4.27
24.0%
4.17
+2.5%
—
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.88
52.0%
1.92
-2.3%
—
Both Teams Score — YES
8 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.07
45.0%
2.22
-6.7%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.30
72.0%
1.39
-6.8%
—
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.29
28.0%
3.57
-8.0%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.20
76.0%
1.32
-9.0%
—
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.88
48.0%
2.08
-10.0%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.35
38.0%
2.63
-10.8%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.