GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–2 · LILLE 40% · Value: BTTS Yes 61%
CONF 58 FULL ANALYSIS →
Ligue 1 · REGULAR SEASON - 31 · SUN, 26 APR · 15:15 LOCAL
PARIS FC
12TH · 38 PTS · LAST 5:
W W D W D
FT
0 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
LILLE
D W W W L
· 3RD · 57 PTS · LAST 5
GOALS
⚽ 26' Matías Fernández (P)
Rudy Matondo
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Rudy Matondo
Paris FC · 45 mins
· 19% pass acc
RATING
7.5
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Ligue 1: Paris FC vs Lille
Watch on Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.06
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.71
47%
BALL POSSESSION %
53%
7
TOTAL SHOTS
10
2
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
82%
PASS ACCURACY %
85%
7
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 18 events
  1. 10'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Moustapha Mbow
    PAR
  2. 26'
    Goal · Penalty
    Matías Fernández
    LIL
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Marshall Munetsi · assist Alimami Gory
    PAR
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Maxime López · assist Rudy Matondo
    PAR
  5. 49'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ayyoub Bouaddi
    LIL
  6. 63'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Benjamin André
    LIL
  7. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Moses Simon · assist Ilan Kebbal
    PAR
  8. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Ciro Immobile · assist Luca Koleosho
    PAR
  9. 72'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jonathan Ikoné
    PAR
  10. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · assist Ethan Mbappé
    LIL
  11. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Matías Fernández · assist Olivier Giroud
    LIL
  12. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Félix Correia · assist Gaëtan Perrin
    LIL
  13. 85'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Pierre Lees Melou
    PAR
  14. 85'
    Card · Red Card
    Pierre Lees Melou
    PAR
  15. 90'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ilan Kebbal
    PAR
  16. 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Adama Camara · assist Hamari Traoré
    PAR
  17. 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Alimami Gory
    PAR
  18. 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Nathan Ngoy
    LIL
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
PARIS FC AVG 6.9
LILLE AVG 7.3
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.1
xG
1.7
7.0
TOTAL SHOTS
10.0
2.0
ON TARGET
4.0
3.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
2.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
47.0%
POSSESSION %
53.0%
419.0
PASSES
491.0
82.0%
PASS ACCURACY
85.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
3.0
4.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
12.0
FOULS
10.0
6.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
1.0
RED CARDS
0.0
3.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
PARIS FC 1 shots
Jonathan Ikoné
0/1
LILLE 3 shots
Benjamin André
2/2
Romain Perraud
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.06 – 1.71
1.4 1 0.7 0.3 1.7 0.0 HT 26' H 1.06 A 1.71 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 61%
39% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
6.9
35
KEVIN TRA
19
NHOA SANG
5
MOUSTAPHA
42
DIEGO COP
17
ADAMA CAM
 6.7
21
MAXIME Ló
33
PIERRE LE
 6.7
27
MOSES SIM
18
MARSHALL
 6.9
93
JONATHAN
36
CIRO IMMO
1
BERKE ÖZE
 7.2
15
ROMAIN PE
 7.5
23
AïSSA MAN
 7.2
3
NATHAN NG
12
THOMAS ME
32
AYYOUB BO
 7.3
21
BENJAMIN
27
FéLIX COR
10
HAKON ARN
 7.2
17
NGAL'AYEL
7
MATíAS FE
SUBSTITUTES · PARIS FC
24
Luca Koleosh...
F
6
Otávio
D
9
Willem Geubb...
F
7
Alimami Gory
F
14
Hamari Traor...
D
10
Ilan Kebbal
M
31
Samir Sophia...
D
16
Obed Nkambad...
G
23
Rudy Matondo
M
COACH: Antoine Kombouare
SUBSTITUTES · LILLE
28
Gaëtan Perri...
F
24
Calvin Verdo...
D
18
Chancel Mbem...
D
8
Ethan Mbappé
M
4
Alexsandro R...
D
11
Osame Sahrao...
F
9
Olivier Giro...
F
16
Arnaud Bodar...
G
22
Tiago Santos
D
COACH: Bruno Genesio
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
PAR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

LIL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Mathieu Vernice, France
—
PAR MANAGER
Antoine Kombouare
head coach
LIL MANAGER
Bruno Genesio
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
PAR WINS
0
DRAWS
2
LIL WINS
100%
2 – 5
TOTAL GOALS · 2 MEETINGS
3.50
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 1 / 2
23 Nov 2025
Lille
4 – 2
Paris FC
L
PARIS FC LAST 5 OVERALL
W W D W D
LILLE LAST 5 OVERALL
D W W W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 0–1 · result locked
PARIS FC #12
Lost · already at 38 pts
LILLE #3
Won · already at 57 pts
Champions League Qualification
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Paris Saint Germain 30 22 3 5 +43 69
W W L W W
2 Lens 30 20 3 7 +28 63
D W L W L
3 Lille 31 17 6 8 +16 57
W D W W W
4 Lyon 31 17 6 8 +16 57
W W W D L
5 Rennes 31 16 8 7 +12 56
W W W W D
6 Marseille 31 16 5 10 +18 53
D L W L L
7 Monaco 31 15 6 10 +7 51
D D L W W
8 Strasbourg 30 13 7 10 +10 46
W L W W D
9 Lorient 31 10 11 10 -5 41
L W L D L
10 Toulouse 31 10 8 13 -1 38
D L L L W
11 Stade Brestois 29 30 10 8 12 -6 38
D D L L L
12 Paris FC 31 9 11 11 -7 38
L W W D W
13 Angers 31 9 7 15 -17 34
L D L D L
14 Le Havre 31 6 13 12 -13 31
D D D D L
15 Nice 31 7 9 15 -22 30
D D D L L
16 Auxerre 31 5 10 16 -15 25
L D D D W
17 Nantes 31 4 8 19 -25 20
L L D D D
18 Metz 31 3 7 21 -39 16
D L L D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Nathan Ngoy
    Argument
  • 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Alimami Gory
    Argument
  • 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Adama Camara
  • 90'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ilan Kebbal
    Foul
  • 85'
    Card · Red Card · Pierre Lees Melou
    Argument
  • 85'
    Card · Yellow Card · Pierre Lees Melou
    Argument
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Félix Correia
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Matías Fernández
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Hakon Arnar Haraldsson
  • 72'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jonathan Ikoné
    Argument
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Ciro Immobile
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Moses Simon
  • 63'
    Card · Yellow Card · Benjamin André
    Foul
  • 49'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ayyoub Bouaddi
    Foul
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Maxime López
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Marshall Munetsi
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 26'
    Goal · Penalty · Matías Fernández
  • 10'
    Card · Yellow Card · Moustapha Mbow
    Foul
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
PARIS FC WIN
4.59
21.8% implied
↑ best 4.82
DRAW
3.87
25.8% implied
↑ best 4.10
LILLE WIN
1.72
58.1% implied
↑ best 1.75

Market favors Lille. AI projects LILLE 40% · value bet BTTS Yes.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS LILLE 40% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 4.60 3.80 1.70 +10.3%
1xBet 4.82 3.96 1.75 +11.3%
888Sport 4.40 3.80 1.70 +9.3%
Bet365 4.50 4.00 1.73 +9.8%
Betano 4.60 3.80 1.75 +10.3%
Betfair 4.60 3.70 1.67 +10.3%
BetVictor 4.60 3.90 1.70 +10.3%
Dafabet 4.60 4.00 1.74 +10.3%
Marathonbet 4.70 4.10 1.74 +10.7%
Pinnacle 4.82 3.94 1.75 +11.3%
SBO 4.25 3.67 1.73 +8.5%
Unibet 4.80 3.90 1.67 +11.2%
William Hill 4.40 3.80 1.70 +9.3%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.23 U 4.07
2.5 O 1.74 U 2.09
3.5 O 2.81 U 1.42
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.69 10 bks
NO
2.08 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.26
Away -0.5 1.22
Away -0.75 1.12
Away -1 1.06
Away -1.25 1.02
Away -1.5 1.04
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.