GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 3–1 · NEW YORK CITY FC 96% · Value: Over 2.5 94%
CONF 87 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 17 · SAT, 25 JUL · 23:30 LOCAL
NEW YORK CITY FC
5TH · 25 PTS · LAST 5:
W L D W W
FT
3 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 3-1
CHICAGO FIRE
L W W W L
· 4TH · 26 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 11' Nicolás Fernández ⚽ 29' Agustin Ojeda ⚽ 41' Malachi Jones
GOALS
⚽ 21' Joel Waterman
Nicolás Fernández
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Nicolás Fernández
New York City FC · 94 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 36% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.5
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.31
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.36
47%
BALL POSSESSION %
53%
10
TOTAL SHOTS
9
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
81%
PASS ACCURACY %
81%
1
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 11'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Nicolás Fernández
    NEW
  2. 21'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Joel Waterman
    CHI
  3. 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Agustin Ojeda · assist Andrés Perea
    NEW
  4. 41'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Malachi Jones · assist Agustin Ojeda
    NEW
  5. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Maren Haile-Selassie · assist Robert Lewandowski
    CHI
  6. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Leonardo Barroso · assist Jonathan Dean
    CHI
  7. 51'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Dje Tah D'Avilla
    CHI
  8. 62'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Nicolás Fernández
    NEW
  9. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Dje Tah D'Avilla · assist Mauricio Pineda
    CHI
  10. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Malachi Jones · assist Bénie Traoré
    NEW
  11. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Viktor Radojević · assist Andrew Gutman
    CHI
  12. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Robin Lod · assist Puso Dithejane
    CHI
  13. 77'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Joel Waterman
    CHI
  14. 80'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Puso Dithejane
    CHI
  15. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Talles Magno · assist Hannes Wolf
    NEW
  16. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jonathan Shore · assist Arnau Farnos
    NEW
  17. 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Agustin Ojeda · assist Mitja Ilenič
    NEW
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
NEW YORK CITY FC AVG 7.8
CHICAGO FIRE AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.3
xG
1.4
10.0
TOTAL SHOTS
9.0
3.0
ON TARGET
5.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
3.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
47.0%
POSSESSION %
53.0%
416.0
PASSES
464.0
81.0%
PASS ACCURACY
81.0%
SET PIECES
1.0
CORNERS
2.0
5.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
8.0
FOULS
16.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
4.0
GK SAVES
0.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
NEW YORK CITY FC 3 shots
Nicolás Fernández
1/1
Agustin Ojeda
1/1
Malachi Jones
1/1
CHICAGO FIRE 4 shots
Anton Salétros
1/2
Joel Waterman
1/1
Mauricio Pineda
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.31 – 1.36
1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 1.4 0.0 HT 11' 29' 41' 21' H 1.31 A 1.36 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 47%
53% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-1-4-1 vs 4-3-3
4-1-4-1
4-3-3
49
MATTHEW F
2
NICO CAVA
6
JAMES SAN
 7.0
13
THIAGO MA
24
TAYVON GR
32
JONATHAN
 7.3
88
MALACHI J
 7.7
8
ANDRéS PE
 8.5
7
NICOLáS F
 8.5
26
AGUSTIN O
11
TALLES MA
1
CHRIS BRA
14
VIKTOR RA
3
JACK ELLI
 7.5
16
JOEL WATE
2
LEONARDO
17
ROBIN LOD
42
DJE TAH D
 6.9
6
ANTON SAL
19
JONATHAN
7
MAREN HAI
 7.5
11
PHILIP ZI
SUBSTITUTES · NEW YORK CITY FC
15
Kevin Pierre
M
17
Hannes Wolf
F
29
Máximo Carri...
M
87
Arnau Farno...
F
9
Bénie Traoré
F
35
Mitja Ilenič
D
23
Max Murray
D
30
Tomás Romero
G
99
Seymour Garf...
F
COACH: Pascal Jansen
SUBSTITUTES · CHICAGO FIRE
20
Jason Shokal...
F
12
Puso Ditheja...
F
22
Mauricio Pin...
D
35
Sergio Orege...
M
5
Samuel Roger...
D
15
Andrew Gutma...
D
24
Jonathan Dea...
D
44
Josh Cohen
G
9
Robert Lewan...
F
COACH: Mario Barcena
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
NEW · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

CHI · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Ricardo Montero, Costa Rica
—
NEW MANAGER
Pascal Jansen
head coach
CHI MANAGER
Mario Barcena
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
6
NEW WINS
3
DRAWS
1
CHI WINS
60%
30%
10%
14 – 7
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.10
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
14 Sep 2025
Chicago Fire
1 – 3
New York City FC
W
25 May 2025
New York City FC
3 – 1
Chicago Fire
W
24 Aug 2024
New York City FC
2 – 2
Chicago Fire
D
14 Jul 2024
Chicago Fire
0 – 0
New York City FC
D
22 Oct 2023
New York City FC
1 – 0
Chicago Fire
W
NEW YORK CITY FC LAST 5 OVERALL
W L D W W
CHICAGO FIRE LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–1 · result locked
NEW YORK CITY FC #5
Won · already at 25 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
CHICAGO FIRE #4
Lost · already at 26 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 16 10 3 3 +21 33
D L W L W
1 Nashville SC 17 12 3 2 +21 39
L W W W W
2 Los Angeles FC 18 10 3 5 +16 33
W W W W L
2 Inter Miami 17 11 4 2 +13 37
W W W W W
3 San Jose Earthquakes 17 10 3 4 +15 33
D L W L L
3 New England Revolution 16 9 2 5 +7 29
W D L W L
4 Chicago Fire 16 8 2 6 +8 26
L L W W W
4 Real Salt Lake 16 8 2 6 +4 26
L L D W W
5 Houston Dynamo 16 8 2 6 -1 26
W D D W L
5 New York City FC 17 7 4 6 +7 25
W W L D W
6 FC Dallas 17 7 5 5 +7 26
L D W W L
6 Charlotte 17 7 4 6 +3 25
W D W W L
7 St. Louis City 17 7 4 6 0 25
W W W W D
7 FC Cincinnati 17 6 5 6 -1 23
L W W D L
8 New York Red Bulls 17 6 4 7 -11 22
L L W D W
8 Seattle Sounders 16 7 3 6 -1 24
L L L L L
9 Minnesota United FC 17 6 5 6 -5 23
D L D L L
9 DC United 17 5 7 5 -3 22
W D D D L
10 Portland Timbers 17 6 3 8 -1 21
W D W L L
10 Orlando City SC 17 6 2 9 -16 20
W W L D W
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 18 5 6 7 -5 21
D L L D W
11 Columbus Crew 17 5 4 8 -2 19
W L W D L
12 Toronto FC 17 3 7 7 -8 16
L D D L L
12 San Diego 17 5 5 7 +3 20
W L L D W
13 Colorado Rapids 17 6 1 10 +1 19
L W L L W
13 CF Montreal 17 4 3 10 -11 15
L L D D L
14 Austin 17 4 5 8 -13 17
L W L L L
14 Philadelphia Union 17 3 4 10 -9 13
W W L D L
15 Sporting Kansas City 17 4 2 11 -26 14
L W L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 17 3 3 11 -13 12
L D L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Agustin Ojeda
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jonathan Shore
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Talles Magno
  • 80'
    Card · Yellow Card · Puso Dithejane
  • 77'
    Card · Yellow Card · Joel Waterman
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Robin Lod
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Viktor Radojević
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Malachi Jones
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Dje Tah D'Avilla
  • 62'
    Card · Yellow Card · Nicolás Fernández
  • 51'
    Card · Yellow Card · Dje Tah D'Avilla
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Leonardo Barroso
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Maren Haile-Selassie
  • HALF TIME · 3 – 1
  • 41'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Malachi Jones
  • 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Agustin Ojeda
  • 21'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Joel Waterman
  • 11'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Nicolás Fernández
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
NEW YORK CITY FC WIN
2.63
38% implied
↑ best 2.76
DRAW
3.61
27.7% implied
↑ best 3.74
CHICAGO FIRE WIN
2.48
40.3% implied
↑ best 2.60

Market favors Chicago Fire. AI projects NEW YORK CITY FC 96% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS NEW YORK CITY FC 96% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.56 3.70 2.45 +56.9%
Bet365 2.70 3.70 2.45 +59.0%
Betano 2.72 3.60 2.47 +59.2%
Betfair 2.70 3.60 2.45 +59.0%
BetVictor 2.63 3.70 2.40 +58.0%
Dafabet 2.70 3.70 2.50 +59.0%
Marathonbet 2.62 3.62 2.41 +57.8%
Pinnacle 2.76 3.74 2.48 +59.8%
SBO 2.44 3.44 2.57 +55.0%
Superbet 2.67 3.65 2.47 +58.5%
Unibet 2.55 3.50 2.60 +56.8%
William Hill 2.50 3.40 2.45 +56.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.18 U 4.78
2.5 O 1.60 U 2.31
3.5 O 2.46 U 1.52
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.49 9 bks
NO
2.47 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.61
Away -0.5 1.48
Away -0.75 1.33
Away -1 1.21
Away -1.25 1.19
Away -1.5 1.14
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.