GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–2 · DRAW 44% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 72 FULL ANALYSIS →
J1 League · REGULAR SEASON - 13 · WED, 29 APR · 07:00 LOCAL
MITO HOLLYHOCK
6TH · 16 PTS · LAST 5:
L W L D D
PEN
2 – 2
AFTER PENALTIES HT · 0-1
MACHIDA ZELVIA
L W W D
· 3RD · 24 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 67' Henry Heroki Mochizuki (OG) ⚽ 90' Koki Ando ⚽ 120+1' Koshi Osaki (P) ⚽ 120+2' Tada Keisuke (P) ⚽ 120+3' Sho Omori (P) ⚽ 120+4' Kenta Itakura (P) ⚽ 120+5' Patryck Ferreira (P)
GOALS
⚽ 17' Hokuto Shimoda ⚽ 48' Ibrahim Drešević ⚽ 120+1' Hokuto Shimoda (P) ⚽ 120+2' Ibrahim Drešević (P) ⚽ 120+3' Erik (P) ⚽ 120+4' Kosei Tani (P)
Hokuto Shimoda
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Hokuto Shimoda
Machida Zelvia · Captain · 97 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 40% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
9.7
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap

awaiting upload
Goals, key moments, post-match interviews
Highlightly publishes 30 min – 6 h after final whistle
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

60%
BALL POSSESSION %
40%
11
TOTAL SHOTS
13
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
84%
PASS ACCURACY %
75%
6
CORNERS
10
KEY EVENTS 25 events
  1. 17'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Hokuto Shimoda · assist Futa Tokumura
    MAC
  2. 48'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ibrahim Drešević · assist Asahi Masuyama
    MAC
  3. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Yuto Yamashita · assist Taishi Semba
    MIT
  4. 67'
    Goal · Own Goal
    Henry Heroki Mochizuki
    MIT
  5. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Matheus Leiria · assist Koki Ando
    MIT
  6. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Ryo Nemoto · assist Tada Keisuke
    MIT
  7. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Keiya Sento · assist Kanji Kuwayama
    MAC
  8. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Sang-Ho Na · assist Kotaro Hayashi
    MAC
  9. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Shota Fujio · assist Tete Yengi
    MAC
  10. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Sho Omori · assist Patryck Ferreira
    MIT
  11. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Takahiro Iida · assist Shota Yamashita
    MIT
  12. 87'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Asahi Masuyama · assist Gen Shoji
    MAC
  13. 88'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Kanji Kuwayama
    MAC
  14. 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Koki Ando · assist Taishi Semba
    MIT
  15. 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Futa Tokumura · assist Erik
    MAC
  16. 90'+3
    Var · Goal Disallowed - handball
    Kanji Kuwayama
    MAC
  17. 120'+1
    Goal · Penalty
    Koshi Osaki
    MIT
  18. 120'+1
    Goal · Penalty
    Hokuto Shimoda
    MAC
  19. 120'+2
    Goal · Penalty
    Tada Keisuke
    MIT
  20. 120'+2
    Goal · Penalty
    Ibrahim Drešević
    MAC
  21. 120'+3
    Goal · Penalty
    Sho Omori
    MIT
  22. 120'+3
    Goal · Penalty
    Erik
    MAC
  23. 120'+4
    Goal · Missed Penalty
    Kenta Itakura
    MIT
  24. 120'+4
    Goal · Penalty
    Kosei Tani
    MAC
  25. 120'+5
    Goal · Missed Penalty
    Patryck Ferreira
    MIT
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
MITO HOLLYHOCK AVG 7.5
MACHIDA ZELVIA AVG 7.9
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
11.0
TOTAL SHOTS
13.0
4.0
ON TARGET
5.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
5.0
3.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
60.0%
POSSESSION %
40.0%
531.0
PASSES
351.0
84.0%
PASS ACCURACY
75.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
10.0
DISCIPLINE
6.0
FOULS
7.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
3.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
MITO HOLLYHOCK 4 shots
Matheus Leiria
2/2
Koki Ando
1/1
Ryo Nemoto
0/1
MACHIDA ZELVIA 3 shots
Hokuto Shimoda
1/1
Shota Fujio
0/1
Ibrahim Drešević
1/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 48%
52% A
12
EVENTS LOGGED
13
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-2-1 vs 3-4-2-1
3-4-2-1
3-4-2-1
21
SHUHEI MA
4
TAKESHI U
17
KENTA ITA
6
TAKAHIRO
7
SHO OMORI
 7.3
3
KOSHI OSA
48
YUTO YAMA
25
TAKUMI MA
 7.9
70
MATHEUS L
10
ARATA WAT
 6.9
9
RYO NEMOT
 8.7
1
KOSEI TAN
 6.9
5
IBRAHIM D
24
KIM MIN-T
6
HENRY HER
 6.9
34
FUTA TOKU
 9.7
18
HOKUTO SH
23
RYOHEI SH
11
ASAHI MAS
10
SANG-HO N
8
KEIYA SEN
 7.2
9
SHOTA FUJ
SUBSTITUTES · MITO HOLLYHOCK
24
Kiichi Yamaz...
M
51
Ryusei Harun...
G
53
Shota Yamash...
M
20
Patryck Ferr...
F
29
Tada Keisuke
F
33
Koki Ando
M
19
Taishi Semba
M
44
Koya Okuda
F
COACH: Daisuke Kimori
SUBSTITUTES · MACHIDA ZELVIA
16
Hiroyuki Mae
M
60
Chui Mayaka
M
13
Tatsuya Mori...
G
27
Erik
F
3
Gen Shoji
D
99
Tete Yengi
F
49
Kanji Kuwaya...
F
26
Kotaro Hayas...
D
88
Hotaka Nakam...
D
COACH: Go Kuroda
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
MIT · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

MAC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Ming Fu, China
—
MIT MANAGER
Daisuke Kimori
head coach
MAC MANAGER
Go Kuroda
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
MIT WINS
3
DRAWS
4
MAC WINS
30%
30%
40%
14 – 13
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.70
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 1 / 10
14 Feb 2026
Machida Zelvia
2 – 2
Mito Hollyhock
D
MITO HOLLYHOCK LAST 5 OVERALL
L W L D D
MACHIDA ZELVIA LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W D
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–2 · result locked
MITO HOLLYHOCK #6
Lost · already at 16 pts
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
MACHIDA ZELVIA #3
Lost · already at 24 pts
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Kashima 12 10 0 2 +13 32
W W W L W
1 Vissel Kobe 11 8 0 3 +11 25
W W W W L
1 Kashima 13 10 0 3 +12 32
L W W W L
1 Vissel Kobe 12 8 0 4 +10 26
L W W W W
2 Nagoya Grampus 13 7 0 6 +4 22
L W W L W
2 FC Tokyo 13 10 0 3 +14 29
W W W L W
2 Nagoya Grampus 12 7 0 5 +5 21
W W L W L
2 FC Tokyo 12 9 0 3 +12 26
W W L W L
3 Gamba Osaka 14 8 0 6 +2 22
L W L W L
3 Machida Zelvia 12 9 0 3 +2 24
W W W L W
3 Gamba Osaka 13 8 0 5 +3 21
W L W L W
3 Machida Zelvia 11 8 0 3 +1 22
W W L W W
4 Kawasaki Frontale 12 7 0 5 -1 20
W W L W L
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 12 7 0 5 +4 19
W W W L L
4 Tokyo Verdy 12 8 0 4 +3 21
W W W L W
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 13 7 0 6 +3 20
L W W W L
5 Kyoto Sanga 12 7 0 5 +3 19
W L W L W
5 Kawasaki Frontale 13 7 0 6 -3 20
L W W L W
5 Kyoto Sanga 11 6 0 5 +2 17
L W L W W
5 Tokyo Verdy 11 7 0 4 +2 18
W W L W L
6 Cerezo Osaka 13 7 0 6 +2 19
W L W W L
6 Mito Hollyhock 13 5 0 8 -8 16
L L W W W
6 Cerezo Osaka 12 6 0 6 +1 17
L W W L W
6 Mito Hollyhock 12 5 0 7 -7 15
L W W W L
7 Urawa 12 3 0 9 -3 12
L L L L L
7 Shimizu S-pulse 12 5 0 7 -1 17
L L W L W
7 Urawa 13 4 0 9 -1 15
W L L L L
7 Shimizu S-pulse 13 5 0 8 -2 17
L L L W L
8 Fagiano Okayama 13 5 0 8 -7 17
W W L L L
8 Yokohama F. Marinos 13 5 0 8 -4 15
W W L L L
8 Fagiano Okayama 12 4 0 8 -8 15
W L L L L
8 Yokohama F. Marinos 12 4 0 8 -5 12
W L L L W
9 Avispa Fukuoka 14 6 0 8 -8 17
W L W L W
9 Kashiwa Reysol 13 4 0 9 -4 11
L L L L W
9 Avispa Fukuoka 13 5 0 8 -9 15
L W L W W
9 Kashiwa Reysol 12 4 0 8 -2 11
L L L W W
10 JEF United Chiba 12 2 0 10 -10 9
L L L W L
10 V-varen Nagasaki 12 4 0 8 -8 13
L L L L W
10 JEF United Chiba 13 2 0 11 -11 9
L L L L W
10 V-varen Nagasaki 13 5 0 8 -7 16
W L L L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 120'+5
    Goal · Missed Penalty · Patryck Ferreira
    Penalty Shootout
  • 120'+4
    Goal · Penalty · Kosei Tani
    Penalty Shootout
  • 120'+4
    Goal · Missed Penalty · Kenta Itakura
    Penalty Shootout
  • 120'+3
    Goal · Penalty · Erik
    Penalty Shootout
  • 120'+3
    Goal · Penalty · Sho Omori
    Penalty Shootout
  • 120'+2
    Goal · Penalty · Ibrahim Drešević
    Penalty Shootout
  • 120'+2
    Goal · Penalty · Tada Keisuke
    Penalty Shootout
  • 120'+1
    Goal · Penalty · Hokuto Shimoda
    Penalty Shootout
  • 120'+1
    Goal · Penalty · Koshi Osaki
    Penalty Shootout
  • 90'+3
    Var · Goal Disallowed - handball · Kanji Kuwayama
  • 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Futa Tokumura
  • 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Koki Ando
  • 88'
    Card · Yellow Card · Kanji Kuwayama
  • 87'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Asahi Masuyama
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Takahiro Iida
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Sho Omori
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Shota Fujio
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Sang-Ho Na
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Keiya Sento
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Ryo Nemoto
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Matheus Leiria
  • 67'
    Goal · Own Goal · Henry Heroki Mochizuki
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Yuto Yamashita
  • 48'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ibrahim Drešević
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 17'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Hokuto Shimoda
11 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 11 BOOKMAKERS
MITO HOLLYHOCK WIN
3.34
29.9% implied
↑ best 3.51
DRAW
3.15
31.7% implied
↑ best 3.25
MACHIDA ZELVIA WIN
2.19
45.7% implied
↑ best 2.27

Market favors Machida Zelvia. AI projects DRAW 44% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DRAW 44% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.30 3.20 2.20 +12.8%
1xBet 3.36 3.14 2.21 +12.2%
Bet365 3.30 3.20 2.20 +12.8%
Betano 3.35 3.15 2.22 +12.3%
Betfair 3.25 3.10 2.10 +11.7%
BetVictor 3.40 3.20 2.20 +12.8%
Dafabet 3.45 3.25 2.21 +13.2%
Marathonbet 3.36 3.14 2.19 +12.2%
Pinnacle 3.51 3.25 2.27 +13.2%
SBO 3.20 3.01 2.15 +10.8%
William Hill 3.30 3.00 2.15 +10.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.40 U 2.75
2.5 O 2.28 U 1.60
3.5 O 4.28 U 1.19
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.95 8 bks
NO
1.76 8 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.39
Away -0.5 1.32
Away -0.75 1.18
Away -1 1.06
Away -1.25 1.03
Away -1.5 1.02
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.