GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–2 · ENGLAND 50% · Value: Over 2.5 72%
CONF 72 FULL ANALYSIS →
World Cup · ROUND OF 16 · MON, 06 JUL · 01:00 LOCAL
MEXICO
1ST · 9 PTS · LAST 5:
W W W W W
FT
2 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 1-2
ENGLAND
W L W W W
· 1ST · 7 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 42' Julián Quiñones ⚽ 69' Raúl Jiménez (P)
GOALS
⚽ 36' Jude Bellingham ⚽ 38' Jude Bellingham ⚽ 60' Harry Kane (P)
Jude Bellingham
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Jude Bellingham
England · 103 mins
⚽ 2 goals · 16% pass acc · 3 shots on
RATING
9.0
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.87
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.55
67%
BALL POSSESSION %
33%
20
TOTAL SHOTS
6
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
92%
PASS ACCURACY %
80%
12
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 21 events
  1. 1'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Declan Rice
    ENG
  2. 36'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jude Bellingham · assist Bukayo Saka
    ENG
  3. 38'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jude Bellingham · assist Harry Kane
    ENG
  4. 42'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Julián Quiñones
    MEX
  5. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    C. Montes · assist Edson Álvarez
    MEX
  6. 54'
    Card · Red Card
    Jarell Quansah
    ENG
  7. 57'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Bukayo Saka · assist J. Stones
    ENG
  8. 60'
    Goal · Penalty
    Harry Kane
    ENG
  9. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    G. Mora · assist Santiago Giménez
    MEX
  10. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Luis Romo · assist Brian Gutiérrez
    MEX
  11. 68'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Marc Guéhi
    ENG
  12. 69'
    Goal · Penalty
    Raúl Jiménez
    MEX
  13. 71'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jorge Sánchez
    MEX
  14. 72'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Nico O'Reilly
    ENG
  15. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Nico O'Reilly · assist Djed Spence
    ENG
  16. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Elliot Anderson · assist Dan Burn
    ENG
  17. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Jorge Sánchez · assist Álvaro Fidalgo
    MEX
  18. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Julián Quiñones · assist Guillermo Martínez
    MEX
  19. 90'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Harry Kane · assist M. Rogers
    ENG
  20. 90'+8
    Card · Yellow Card
    Johan Vásquez
    MEX
  21. 90'+8
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jordan Henderson
    ENG
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
MEXICO AVG 7.4
ENGLAND AVG 7.6
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.9
xG
1.6
20.0
TOTAL SHOTS
6.0
5.0
ON TARGET
5.0
8.0
OFF TARGET
1.0
7.0
BLOCKED
0.0
POSSESSION
67.0%
POSSESSION %
33.0%
455.0
PASSES
244.0
92.0%
PASS ACCURACY
80.0%
SET PIECES
12.0
CORNERS
2.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
14.0
FOULS
7.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
0.0
RED CARDS
1.0
2.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
MEXICO 4 shots
Julián Quiñones
1/2
Álvaro Fidalgo
1/1
Edson Álvarez
0/1
ENGLAND 4 shots
Jude Bellingham
3/3
Harry Kane
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.87 – 1.55
1.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 1.9 0.0 HT 42' 69' 36' 38' 60' H 1.87 A 1.55 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 43%
57% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
12
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1
4-3-3
4-2-3-1
1
RAúL RANG
23
JESúS GAL
5
JOHAN VáS
3
C. MONTES
2
JORGE SáN
7
LUIS ROMO
 7.3
6
ERIK LIRA
19
G. MORA
 7.9
16
JULIáN QU
9
RAúL JIMé
 7.3
25
ROBERTO A
 7.3
1
J. PICKFO
3
NICO O'RE
6
MARC GUéH
2
EZRI KONS
26
JARELL QU
8
ELLIOT AN
4
DECLAN RI
18
ANTHONY G
 9.0
10
JUDE BELL
 7.3
7
BUKAYO SA
 7.3
9
HARRY KAN
SUBSTITUTES · MEXICO
20
Mateo Chávez
D
17
O. Pineda
M
18
O. Vargas
M
24
L. Chávez
M
10
Alexis Vega
F
21
C. Huerta
M
15
I. Reyes
D
13
G. Ochoa
G
12
Carlos Aceve...
G
22
Guillermo Ma...
F
8
Álvaro Fidal...
M
11
Santiago Gim...
F
26
Brian Gutiér...
M
4
Edson Álvare...
M
14
Armando Gonz...
F
COACH: Javier Aguirre
SUBSTITUTES · ENGLAND
14
Jordan Hende...
M
16
K. Mainoo
M
21
Eberechi Eze
M
11
M. Rashford
F
19
O. Watkins
F
20
Noni Madueke
F
24
Reece James
D
12
T. Chalobah
D
23
J. Trafford
G
13
Dean Henders...
G
17
M. Rogers
M
25
Djed Spence
D
15
Dan Burn
D
5
J. Stones
D
22
Ivan Toney
F
COACH: Thomas Tuchel
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
MEX · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

ENG · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
A. Faghani
—
MEX MANAGER
Javier Aguirre
head coach
ENG MANAGER
Thomas Tuchel
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
MEX WINS
1
DRAWS
0
ENG WINS
100%
MEXICO LAST 5 OVERALL
W W W W W
ENGLAND LAST 5 OVERALL
W L W W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–3 · result locked
MEXICO #1
Lost · already at 9 pts
Round of 32
ENGLAND #1
Won · already at 7 pts
Round of 32
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 +6 9
L W W W W
1 Congo DR 3 1 1 1 +1 4
L W L D
1 England 3 2 1 0 +4 7
W L W W W
1 Colombia 3 2 1 0 +3 7
L W D W W
1 Argentina 3 3 0 0 +7 9
L W W W W
1 France 3 3 0 0 +8 9
L L W W W
1 Spain 3 2 1 0 +5 7
W W W W W
1 Belgium 3 1 2 0 +4 5
L W W W D
1 Netherlands 3 2 1 0 +6 7
L W W D
1 Germany 3 2 0 1 +6 6
L L W W
1 USA 3 2 0 1 +4 6
L W L W W
1 Brazil 3 2 1 0 +6 7
L W W W D
1 Switzerland 3 2 1 0 +4 7
L W W W W
2 Norway 3 2 0 1 +1 6
L W W L W
2 Austria 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
2 Portugal 3 1 2 0 +5 5
L W D W D
2 Croatia 3 2 0 1 0 6
L W W L
2 Sweden 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
2 Cape Verde Islands 3 0 3 0 0 3
L D D D
2 Egypt 3 1 2 0 +2 5
L W D W D
2 Japan 3 1 2 0 +4 5
L D W D
2 Ivory Coast 3 2 0 1 +2 6
L W L W
2 Australia 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
2 Morocco 3 2 1 0 +3 7
L W W W W
2 Canada 3 1 1 1 +5 4
L W L W D
2 South Africa 3 1 1 1 -1 4
L W D L
3 Senegal 3 1 0 2 +2 3
L W L L
3 Algeria 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L D W L
3 Congo DR 3 1 1 1 +1 4
L W L D
3 Ghana 3 1 1 1 0 4
L L D W
3 Ghana 3 1 1 1 0 4
L L D W
3 Uruguay 3 0 2 1 -1 2
L D D
3 Iran 3 0 3 0 0 3
D D D
3 Sweden 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
3 Ecuador 3 1 1 1 0 4
L W D L
3 Paraguay 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L W D W L
3 Scotland 3 1 0 2 -3 3
L L W
3 Bosnia & Herzegovina 3 1 1 1 -1 4
L W L D
3 South Korea 3 1 0 2 -1 3
L L W
4 Iraq 3 0 0 3 -11 0
L L L
4 Jordan 3 0 0 3 -5 0
L L L
4 Uzbekistan 3 0 0 3 -9 0
L L L
4 Panama 3 0 0 3 -4 0
L L L
4 Ecuador 3 1 1 1 0 4
L W D L
4 Saudi Arabia 3 0 2 1 -4 2
D L D
4 New Zealand 3 0 1 2 -6 1
L L D
4 Tunisia 3 0 0 3 -10 0
L L L
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 -4 1
L D L
4 Qatar 3 0 1 2 -8 1
L L D
4 Haiti 3 0 0 3 -6 0
L L L
4 Türkiye 3 1 0 2 -2 3
W L L
4 Curaçao 3 0 1 2 -8 1
L D L
5 Bosnia & Herzegovina 3 1 1 1 -1 4
L W L D
5 New Zealand 1 0 1 0 0 1
D
6 Spain 1 0 1 0 0 1
D
6 Algeria 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L D W L
7 Croatia 2 1 0 1 -1 3
W L
7 Portugal 1 0 1 0 0 1
W D
7 Paraguay 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L W D W L
8 Senegal 3 1 0 2 +2 3
L W L L
9 Czech Republic 2 0 1 1 -1 1
D L
9 Saudi Arabia 2 0 1 1 -4 1
L D
9 Iran 3 0 3 0 0 3
D D D
10 South Korea 3 1 0 2 -1 3
L L W
10 Cape Verde Islands 2 0 2 0 0 2
D D
10 Belgium 2 0 2 0 0 2
D D
11 Scotland 3 1 0 2 -3 3
L L W
11 Panama 1 0 0 1 -1 0
L
11 Jordan 1 0 0 1 -2 0
L
12 Uruguay 3 0 2 1 -1 2
L D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+8
    Card · Yellow Card · Jordan Henderson
  • 90'+8
    Card · Yellow Card · Johan Vásquez
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 90'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Harry Kane
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Julián Quiñones
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Jorge Sánchez
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Elliot Anderson
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Nico O'Reilly
  • 72'
    Card · Yellow Card · Nico O'Reilly
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 71'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jorge Sánchez
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 69'
    Goal · Penalty · Raúl Jiménez
  • 68'
    Card · Yellow Card · Marc Guéhi
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Luis Romo
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · G. Mora
  • 60'
    Goal · Penalty · Harry Kane
  • 57'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Bukayo Saka
  • 54'
    Card · Red Card · Jarell Quansah
    Serious foul
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · C. Montes
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 2
  • 42'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Julián Quiñones
  • 38'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jude Bellingham
  • 36'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jude Bellingham
  • 1'
    Card · Yellow Card · Declan Rice
    Roughing
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
MEXICO WIN
3.03
33% implied
↑ best 3.15
DRAW
3.10
32.3% implied
↑ best 3.20
ENGLAND WIN
2.51
39.8% implied
↑ best 2.64

Market favors England. AI projects ENGLAND 50% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ENGLAND 50% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.75 3.15 2.58 +11.2%
1xBet 3.11 3.18 2.64 +12.1%
888Sport 2.90 2.90 2.40 +8.3%
Bet365 3.00 3.10 2.50 +10.0%
Betano 3.15 3.20 2.52 +10.3%
Betfair 3.10 3.10 2.55 +10.8%
BetVictor 3.00 3.10 2.45 +9.2%
Dafabet 3.10 3.15 2.50 +10.0%
Marathonbet 3.02 3.08 2.56 +10.9%
Pinnacle 3.11 3.15 2.61 +11.7%
SBO 3.10 3.06 2.42 +8.7%
Unibet 3.10 3.10 2.48 +9.7%
William Hill 3.00 3.00 2.45 +9.2%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.44 U 2.69
2.5 O 2.38 U 1.57
3.5 O 4.44 U 1.18
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.98 10 bks
NO
1.77 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.52
Away -0.5 1.39
Away -0.75 1.26
Away -1 1.13
Away -1.25 1.10
Away -1.5 1.07
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.