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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–0 · GUIMARAES 58%
CONF 61 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 33 · MON, 11 MAY · 19:15 LOCAL
GUIMARAES
9TH · 42 PTS · LAST 5:
L L W W D
FT
0 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
CASA PIA
D L L L D
· 16TH · 30 PTS · LAST 5
GOALS
⚽ 86' Gaizka Larrazabal
Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira
Casa Pia · 96 mins
· 12% pass acc
RATING
7.9
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.94
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.88
71%
BALL POSSESSION %
29%
15
TOTAL SHOTS
11
2
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
83%
PASS ACCURACY %
61%
6
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 13 events
  1. 22'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Pedro Rosas
    CAS
  2. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Lawrence Ofori · assist Oluwakorede Osundina
    CAS
  3. 60'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Gustavo Silva · assist Oumar Camara
    GUI
  4. 60'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Miguel Nogueira · assist Telmo Arcanjo
    GUI
  5. 60'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Gonçalo Nogueira · assist Martim Guedes
    GUI
  6. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Dailon Rocha Livramento · assist Claudio Mendes
    CAS
  7. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Kevin Prieto · assist Abdu Conté
    CAS
  8. 76'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rodrigo Abascal
    GUI
  9. 78'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Beni Mukendi
    GUI
  10. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Samu · assist Alioune Ndoye
    GUI
  11. 86'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Gaizka Larrazabal
    CAS
  12. 90'+5
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Claudio Mendes · assist Abdu Dafe
    CAS
  13. 90'+6
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Gaizka Larrazabal · assist José Fonte
    CAS
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
GUIMARAES AVG 7.3
CASA PIA AVG 7.2
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.9
xG
0.9
15.0
TOTAL SHOTS
11.0
2.0
ON TARGET
5.0
8.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
5.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
71.0%
POSSESSION %
29.0%
496.0
PASSES
204.0
83.0%
PASS ACCURACY
61.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
4.0
3.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
11.0
FOULS
16.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
4.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
GUIMARAES 3 shots
Rodrigo Abascal
0/2
Noah Saviolo
1/1
CASA PIA 3 shots
Gaizka Larrazabal
2/2
David Sousa
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.94 – 0.88
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.0 HT 86' H 0.94 A 0.88 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 46%
54% A
6
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-3
4-2-3-1
3-4-3
7.2
27
CHARLES
 7.2
82
FRANCISCO
 7.3
26
RODRIGO A
4
ÓSCAR RIV
66
TONY STRA
 7.6
16
BENI MUKE
30
GONçALO N
 7.3
48
NOAH SAVI
20
SAMU
88
MIGUEL NO
11
GUSTAVO S
1
PATRICK S
 6.9
43
DAVID SOU
 7.9
3
DOMINGOS
4
JOãO GOUL
75
PEDRO ROS
 6.9
42
SEBASTIáN
80
LAWRENCE
19
KEVIN PRI
 6.9
11
JOAO MARQ
10
DAILON RO
 7.6
72
GAIZKA LA
SUBSTITUTES · GUIMARAES
18
Telmo Arcanj...
M
50
Martim Guede...
M
19
Oumar Camara
F
80
Rica Rocha
M
13
João Mendes
D
2
Miguel Maga
D
3
Miguel Nóbre...
D
25
Juan Castill...
G
90
Alioune Ndoy...
F
COACH: Gil Lameiras
SUBSTITUTES · CASA PIA
21
Tiago Morais
F
99
Claudio Mend...
F
7
Kelian Nsona
F
59
Abdu Dafe
M
5
Abdu Conté
D
6
José Fonte
D
95
Ivan Mandić
G
13
Oluwakorede...
F
32
Kiki Silva
F
COACH: Alvaro Pacheco
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
GUI · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

CAS · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Luís Godinho, Portugal
—
GUI MANAGER
Gil Lameiras
head coach
CAS MANAGER
Alvaro Pacheco
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
2
GUI WINS
4
DRAWS
2
CAS WINS
25%
50%
25%
3 – 4
TOTAL GOALS · 8 MEETINGS
0.88
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 8
28 Dec 2025
Casa Pia
0 – 0
Guimaraes
D
01 Mar 2025
Guimaraes
1 – 0
Casa Pia
W
28 Sep 2024
Casa Pia
1 – 1
Guimaraes
D
24 Feb 2024
Guimaraes
0 – 2
Casa Pia
L
23 Sep 2023
Casa Pia
0 – 0
Guimaraes
D
GUIMARAES LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W W D
CASA PIA LAST 5 OVERALL
D L L L D
MATCH IMPACT Final 0–1 · result locked
GUIMARAES #9
Lost · already at 42 pts
CASA PIA #16
Won · already at 30 pts
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 +48 88
W L W W W
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 +65 82
W W W D D
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 +49 80
W D D W W
4 SC Braga 34 16 11 7 +28 59
D D D L W
5 Famalicao 34 15 11 8 +13 56
W D D W D
6 GIL Vicente 34 13 11 10 +9 50
L L D W L
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 -12 43
D L W L W
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 -17 42
W W D L W
9 Guimaraes 34 12 6 16 -12 42
L L L W W
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 -3 39
L D D L L
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 -17 39
L D L W L
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 -22 36
D L D L D
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 -9 36
L W D W D
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 -8 34
W L L W W
15 Estrela 34 6 12 16 -18 30
D D L L L
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 -26 30
D W L L L
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 -28 28
L W W D L
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 -40 21
D W W D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+6
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Gaizka Larrazabal
  • 90'+5
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Claudio Mendes
  • 86'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Gaizka Larrazabal
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Samu
  • 78'
    Card · Yellow Card · Beni Mukendi
  • 76'
    Card · Yellow Card · Rodrigo Abascal
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Kevin Prieto
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Dailon Rocha Livramento
  • 60'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Gonçalo Nogueira
  • 60'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Miguel Nogueira
  • 60'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Gustavo Silva
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Lawrence Ofori
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 22'
    Card · Yellow Card · Pedro Rosas
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
GUIMARAES WIN
1.70
58.8% implied
↑ best 1.75
DRAW
3.84
26% implied
↑ best 4.14
CASA PIA WIN
4.62
21.6% implied
↑ best 4.75

Market favors Guimaraes. AI projects GUIMARAES 58%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS GUIMARAES 58% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.70 3.80 4.65 -0.8%
1xBet 1.73 4.14 4.72 +0.2%
888Sport 1.70 3.80 4.40 -0.8%
Bet365 1.70 3.80 4.75 -0.8%
Betano 1.72 3.95 4.65 -0.1%
Betfair 1.67 3.90 4.75 -1.1%
BetVictor 1.67 3.60 4.60 -1.7%
Dafabet 1.75 3.95 4.70 +0.9%
Marathonbet 1.67 3.98 4.55 -1.9%
Pinnacle 1.71 4.05 4.73 -0.5%
SBO 1.68 3.61 4.62 -1.5%
Unibet 1.74 3.60 4.50 +0.5%
William Hill 1.70 3.80 4.40 -0.8%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.26 U 3.60
2.5 O 1.86 U 1.92
3.5 O 3.16 U 1.32
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.79 10 bks
NO
1.92 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.54
Away -0.5 2.16
Away -0.75 1.89
Away -1 1.62
Away -1.25 1.47
Away -1.5 1.37
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.