GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–3 · ST. LOUIS CITY 93% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 16 · THU, 23 JUL · 02:30 LOCAL
LOS ANGELES GALAXY
11TH · 21 PTS · LAST 5:
D L L D W
FT
1 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 0-2
ST. LOUIS CITY
W W W D W
· 7TH · 25 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 86' Troy Elgersma
GOALS
⚽ 42' Lukas MacNaughton ⚽ 45+1' Marcel Hartel ⚽ 68' Simon Becher
Marcel Hartel
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Marcel Hartel
St. Louis City · Captain · 93 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 🅰 2 assists · 37% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
9.7
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.90
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
2.08
47%
BALL POSSESSION %
53%
10
TOTAL SHOTS
13
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
8
82%
PASS ACCURACY %
86%
4
CORNERS
7
KEY EVENTS 20 events
  1. 42'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Lukas MacNaughton · assist Marcel Hartel
    ST.
  2. 45'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Marcel Hartel · assist Tomas Totland
    ST.
  3. 45'+1
    Card · Yellow Card
    Carlos Garcés
    LOS
  4. 45'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Marco Reus
    LOS
  5. 49'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Carlos Garcés
    LOS
  6. 49'
    Card · Red Card
    Carlos Garcés
    LOS
  7. 56'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Lukas MacNaughton
    ST.
  8. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Marco Reus · assist Robert Taylor
    LOS
  9. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Eduard Löwen · assist Jeong Sang-bin
    ST.
  10. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Lukas MacNaughton · assist Jaziel Orozco
    ST.
  11. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Mykhi Joyner · assist Rafael Santos
    ST.
  12. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    John Nelson · assist Julián Aude
    LOS
  13. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Lucas Sanabria · assist Isaiah Parente
    LOS
  14. 68'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Simon Becher · assist Marcel Hartel
    ST.
  15. 71'
    Card · Yellow Card
    LOS
  16. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Joseph Paintsil · assist Troy Elgersma
    LOS
  17. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Elijah Wynder · assist Maya Yoshida
    LOS
  18. 86'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Troy Elgersma
    LOS
  19. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Simon Becher · assist Palmer Ault
    ST.
  20. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Daniel Edelman · assist Miguel Perez
    ST.
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
LOS ANGELES GALAXY AVG 7.2
ST. LOUIS CITY AVG 7.9
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.9
xG
2.1
10.0
TOTAL SHOTS
13.0
3.0
ON TARGET
8.0
3.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
4.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
47.0%
POSSESSION %
53.0%
414.0
PASSES
474.0
82.0%
PASS ACCURACY
86.0%
SET PIECES
4.0
CORNERS
7.0
3.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
11.0
FOULS
16.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
1.0
RED CARDS
0.0
5.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
LOS ANGELES GALAXY 4 shots
Troy Elgersma
2/2
Joseph Paintsil
0/2
ST. LOUIS CITY 10 shots
Simon Becher
4/5
Marcel Hartel
2/4
Lukas MacNaughton
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.90 – 2.08
1.7 1.2 0.8 0.4 2.1 0.0 HT 86' 42' 45' 68' H 0.90 A 2.08 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 55%
45% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-1-4-1 vs 3-4-1-2
4-1-4-1
3-4-1-2
7.9
12
JT MARCIN
14
JOHN NELS
25
CARLOS GA
5
JAKOB GLE
2
MIKI YAMA
15
JUSTIN HA
 6.7
26
HARBOR MI
 7.3
8
LUCAS SAN
22
ELIJAH WY
 6.9
28
JOSEPH PA
18
MARCO REU
1
ROMAN BüR
21
DANTE POL
 7.3
32
TIMO BAUM
 7.6
5
LUKAS MAC
14
TOMAS TOT
 6.9
8
CHRISTOPH
24
DANIEL ED
59
MYKHI JOY
 9.7
17
MARCEL HA
 7.9
11
SIMON BEC
10
EDUARD Lö
SUBSTITUTES · LOS ANGELES GALAXY
76
Troy Elgersm...
M
20
Chris Rindov
D
3
Julián Aude
D
4
Maya Yoshida
D
1
Novak Mićovi...
G
21
Robert Taylo...
M
16
Isaiah Paren...
M
COACH: Greg Vanney
SUBSTITUTES · ST. LOUIS CITY
29
Palmer Ault
M
20
Rafael Santo...
D
7
Tomáš Ostrák
M
28
Miguel Perez
M
27
Fallou Fall
D
22
Kyle Hiebert
D
99
Jaziel Orozc...
D
39
Benjamin Lun...
G
77
Jeong Sang-b...
F
COACH: Yoann Damet
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
LOS · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

ST. · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
M. Badawi
—
LOS MANAGER
Greg Vanney
head coach
ST. MANAGER
Yoann Damet
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
LOS WINS
4
DRAWS
3
ST. WINS
30%
40%
30%
22 – 18
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
4.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
14 Jun 2025
St. Louis City
3 – 3
Los Angeles Galaxy
D
09 Mar 2025
Los Angeles Galaxy
0 – 3
St. Louis City
L
01 Sep 2024
St. Louis City
2 – 1
Los Angeles Galaxy
L
17 Mar 2024
Los Angeles Galaxy
3 – 3
St. Louis City
D
11 Sep 2023
Los Angeles Galaxy
2 – 2
St. Louis City
D
LOS ANGELES GALAXY LAST 5 OVERALL
D L L D W
ST. LOUIS CITY LAST 5 OVERALL
W W W D W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–3 · result locked
LOS ANGELES GALAXY #11
Lost · already at 21 pts
ST. LOUIS CITY #7
Won · already at 25 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 16 10 3 3 +21 33
D L W L W
1 Nashville SC 17 12 3 2 +21 39
L W W W W
2 Los Angeles FC 18 10 3 5 +16 33
W W W W L
2 Inter Miami 17 11 4 2 +13 37
W W W W W
3 San Jose Earthquakes 17 10 3 4 +15 33
D L W L L
3 New England Revolution 16 9 2 5 +7 29
W D L W L
4 Chicago Fire 16 8 2 6 +8 26
L L W W W
4 Real Salt Lake 16 8 2 6 +4 26
L L D W W
5 Houston Dynamo 16 8 2 6 -1 26
W D D W L
5 New York City FC 17 7 4 6 +7 25
W W L D W
6 FC Dallas 17 7 5 5 +7 26
L D W W L
6 Charlotte 17 7 4 6 +3 25
W D W W L
7 St. Louis City 17 7 4 6 0 25
W W W W D
7 FC Cincinnati 17 6 5 6 -1 23
L W W D L
8 New York Red Bulls 17 6 4 7 -11 22
L L W D W
8 Seattle Sounders 16 7 3 6 -1 24
L L L L L
9 Minnesota United FC 17 6 5 6 -5 23
D L D L L
9 DC United 17 5 7 5 -3 22
W D D D L
10 Portland Timbers 17 6 3 8 -1 21
W D W L L
10 Orlando City SC 17 6 2 9 -16 20
W W L D W
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 18 5 6 7 -5 21
D L L D W
11 Columbus Crew 17 5 4 8 -2 19
W L W D L
12 Toronto FC 17 3 7 7 -8 16
L D D L L
12 San Diego 17 5 5 7 +3 20
W L L D W
13 Colorado Rapids 17 6 1 10 +1 19
L W L L W
13 CF Montreal 17 4 3 10 -11 15
L L D D L
14 Austin 17 4 5 8 -13 17
L W L L L
14 Philadelphia Union 17 3 4 10 -9 13
W W L D L
15 Sporting Kansas City 17 4 2 11 -26 14
L W L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 17 3 3 11 -13 12
L D L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Daniel Edelman
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Simon Becher
  • 86'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Troy Elgersma
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Elijah Wynder
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Joseph Paintsil
  • 71'
    Card · Yellow Card
  • 68'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Simon Becher
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Lucas Sanabria
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · John Nelson
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Mykhi Joyner
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Lukas MacNaughton
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Eduard Löwen
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Marco Reus
  • 56'
    Card · Yellow Card · Lukas MacNaughton
  • 49'
    Card · Red Card · Carlos Garcés
  • 49'
    Card · Yellow Card · Carlos Garcés
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 2
  • 45'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Marco Reus
  • 45'+1
    Card · Yellow Card · Carlos Garcés
  • 45'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal · Marcel Hartel
  • 42'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Lukas MacNaughton
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
LOS ANGELES GALA WIN
2.12
47.2% implied
↑ best 2.25
DRAW
3.67
27.2% implied
↑ best 3.85
ST. LOUIS CITY WIN
3.14
31.8% implied
↑ best 3.48

Market favors Los Angeles Galaxy. AI projects ST. LOUIS CITY 93% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ST. LOUIS CITY 93% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.16 3.50 3.10 +60.7%
Bet365 2.25 3.60 3.00 +59.7%
Betano 2.15 3.85 3.00 +59.7%
Betfair 2.20 3.50 3.00 +59.7%
BetVictor 2.15 3.70 3.00 +59.7%
Dafabet 2.24 3.75 3.05 +60.2%
Marathonbet 1.92 3.78 3.48 +64.3%
Pinnacle 2.24 3.72 3.15 +61.3%
SBO 1.98 3.64 3.25 +62.2%
Superbet 2.00 3.85 3.45 +64.0%
Unibet 2.05 3.65 3.30 +62.7%
William Hill 2.15 3.50 2.90 +58.5%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.16 U 5.00
2.5 O 1.56 U 2.37
3.5 O 2.38 U 1.56
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.47 9 bks
NO
2.52 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.96
Away -0.5 1.74
Away -0.75 1.57
Away -1 1.36
Away -1.25 1.32
Away -1.5 1.27
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.