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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE 37%
CONF 38 FULL ANALYSIS →
Copa Libertadores · GROUP STAGE - 3 · TUE, 28 APR · 22:00 LOCAL
LIBERTAD ASUNCION
FT
2 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 1-1
INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE
⚽ 37' Lorenzo Melgarejo ⚽ 85' Lorenzo Melgarejo (P)
GOALS
⚽ 33' Carlos Gonzalez ⚽ 51' Carlos Gonzalez ⚽ 65' Carlos Gonzalez
Carlos Gonzalez
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Carlos Gonzalez
Independiente del Valle · 81 mins
⚽ 3 goals · 15% pass acc · 3 shots on
RATING
9.9
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap

awaiting upload
Goals, key moments, post-match interviews
Highlightly publishes 30 min – 6 h after final whistle
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.16
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.84
44%
BALL POSSESSION %
56%
8
TOTAL SHOTS
14
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
80%
PASS ACCURACY %
83%
0
CORNERS
6
KEY EVENTS 20 events
  1. 33'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Carlos Gonzalez · assist Layan Loor
    IND
  2. 37'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Lorenzo Melgarejo · assist Federico Carrizo
    LIB
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Iván Franco · assist Marcelo Fernandez
    LIB
  4. 51'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Carlos Gonzalez · assist Arón Rodríguez
    IND
  5. 54'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Álvaro Campuzano
    LIB
  6. 58'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Federico Carrizo
    LIB
  7. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Lucas Sanabria · assist Amin Molinas
    LIB
  8. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Federico Carrizo · assist Gustavo Aguilar
    LIB
  9. 65'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Carlos Gonzalez · assist Jordy Alcivar
    IND
  10. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Matías Perello · assist Emerson Pata
    IND
  11. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Arón Rodríguez · assist D. Guagua
    IND
  12. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Robert Rojas · assist Iván Ramírez
    LIB
  13. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Alexis Fretes · assist Matías Rojas
    LIB
  14. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    J. Lerma · assist Youri Ochoa
    IND
  15. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Jordy Alcivar · assist Jhegson Méndez
    IND
  16. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Carlos Gonzalez · assist Juan Angulo
    IND
  17. 85'
    Goal · Penalty
    Lorenzo Melgarejo
    LIB
  18. 87'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gustavo Aguilar
    LIB
  19. 90'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ronald Briones
    IND
  20. 90'+1
    Card · Yellow Card
    Layan Loor
    IND
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
LIBERTAD ASUNCION AVG 7.4
INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE AVG 7.8
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.2
xG
0.8
8.0
TOTAL SHOTS
14.0
4.0
ON TARGET
6.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
5.0
0.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
44.0%
POSSESSION %
56.0%
346.0
PASSES
441.0
80.0%
PASS ACCURACY
83.0%
SET PIECES
0.0
CORNERS
6.0
6.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
8.0
FOULS
14.0
3.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
3.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
LIBERTAD ASUNCION 6 shots
Lorenzo Melgarejo
3/6
INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE 8 shots
Carlos Gonzalez
3/3
Arón Rodríguez
1/3
Jordy Alcivar
1/1
Mateo Carabajal
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.16 – 0.84
0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.2 0.0 HT 37' 85' 33' 51' 65' H 1.16 A 0.84 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 50%
50% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-1-4-1
4-2-3-1
4-1-4-1
6.9
12
RODRIGO M
17
MATíAS ES
4
NéSTOR GI
 6.9
5
DIEGO VIE
3
ROBERT RO
6
ÁLVARO CA
21
LUCAS SAN
14
ALEXIS FR
8
FEDERICO
18
IVáN FRAN
 9.2
10
LORENZO M
 6.9
1
ALDAIR QU
19
LAYAN LOO
33
ANDY VELA
 6.9
14
MATEO CAR
13
DAYKOL RO
 7.7
6
JORDY ALC
 7.6
17
ARóN RODR
16
RONALD BR
53
JUSTIN LE
11
MATíAS PE
 9.9
9
CARLOS GO
SUBSTITUTES · LIBERTAD ASUNCION
34
Estiven Vill...
D
19
Jorge Recald...
M
24
Rodrigo Vill...
D
26
Hernesto Cab...
M
31
Thiago Ferna...
D
25
Ángel Gonzál...
G
7
Matías Rojas
M
2
Iván Ramírez
D
11
Gustavo Agui...
F
27
Amin Molinas
M
28
Marcelo Fern...
F
22
Hugo Martíne...
M
COACH: Francisco Arce
SUBSTITUTES · INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE
32
Jhegson Ménd...
M
8
Youri Ochoa
M
99
Djorkaeff Re...
F
50
Juan Angulo
F
4
Jhon Espinoz...
D
2
Luis Felipe...
D
15
Gustavo Cort...
D
20
Aníbal Gómez
M
12
Eduardo Bore...
G
31
Emerson Pata
F
55
Darwin Guagu...
M
18
Steven Gongo...
F
COACH: Joaquin Papa
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
LIB · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

IND · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Carlos Betancur, Colombia
—
LIB MANAGER
Francisco Arce
head coach
IND MANAGER
Joaquin Papa
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
LIB WINS
0
DRAWS
1
IND WINS
100%
2 – 3
TOTAL GOALS · 1 MEETINGS
5.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
LIBERTAD ASUNCION LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W
INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE LAST 5 OVERALL
W
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–3 · result locked
LIBERTAD ASUNCION #4
Lost · already at 0 pts
INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE #1
Won · already at 7 pts
Playoffs
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Flamengo 2 2 0 0 +5 6
W W
1 Independiente del Valle 3 2 1 0 +3 7
W W D
1 LDU de Quito 3 2 0 1 +2 6
L W W
1 Palmeiras 2 1 1 0 +1 4
W D
1 Corinthians 2 2 0 0 +4 6
W W
1 Boca Juniors 2 2 0 0 +4 6
W W
1 Independ. Rivadavia 2 2 0 0 +2 6
W W
1 Club Nacional 2 1 1 0 +2 4
W D
2 Rosario Central 3 1 2 0 +1 5
W D
2 Lanus 3 2 0 1 +1 6
W W L
2 Sporting Cristal 2 1 0 1 0 3
L W D W W
2 Platense 2 1 0 1 -1 3
W L
2 U. Catolica 2 1 0 1 0 3
W L
2 Deportivo La Guaira 2 0 2 0 0 2
D D
2 Coquimbo Unido 2 1 1 0 +2 4
W D
2 Estudiantes L.P. 2 1 1 0 +1 4
W D
3 UCV 3 1 1 1 0 4
L W
3 Mirassol 2 1 0 1 -1 3
L W
3 Cerro Porteno 2 1 0 1 0 3
W L
3 Penarol 2 0 1 1 -1 1
L D
3 Cruzeiro 2 1 0 1 0 3
L W
3 Bolívar 2 0 1 1 -1 1
D L
3 Deportes Tolima 2 0 1 1 -2 1
L D W L D
3 Independiente Medellin 2 0 1 1 -3 1
L D W D D
4 Always Ready 2 0 0 2 -2 0
L L
4 Junior 2 0 1 1 -1 1
L D
4 Santa Fe 2 0 1 1 -2 1
L D
4 Barcelona SC 2 0 0 2 -4 0
L L W D W
4 Fluminense 2 0 1 1 -1 1
L D
4 Universitario 2 0 1 1 -2 1
L D
4 Cusco 2 0 0 2 -3 0
L L
4 Libertad Asuncion 3 0 0 3 -4 0
L L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+1
    Card · Yellow Card · Layan Loor
    Tripping
  • 90'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ronald Briones
    Foul
  • 87'
    Card · Yellow Card · Gustavo Aguilar
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 85'
    Goal · Penalty · Lorenzo Melgarejo
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Carlos Gonzalez
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Jordy Alcivar
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · J. Lerma
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Alexis Fretes
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Robert Rojas
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Arón Rodríguez
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Matías Perello
  • 65'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Carlos Gonzalez
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Federico Carrizo
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Lucas Sanabria
  • 58'
    Card · Yellow Card · Federico Carrizo
    Foul
  • 54'
    Card · Yellow Card · Álvaro Campuzano
    Foul
  • 51'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Carlos Gonzalez
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Iván Franco
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 1
  • 37'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Lorenzo Melgarejo
  • 33'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Carlos Gonzalez
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
LIBERTAD ASUNCIO WIN
2.75
36.4% implied
↑ best 2.85
DRAW
3.01
33.2% implied
↑ best 3.15
INDEPENDIENTE DE WIN
2.68
37.3% implied
↑ best 2.80

Market favors Independiente del Valle. AI projects INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE 37%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE 37% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.72 3.05 2.68 -0.3%
1xBet 2.82 3.06 2.78 +1.0%
888Sport 2.70 2.90 2.63 -1.0%
Bet365 2.80 3.00 2.75 +0.6%
Betano 2.80 3.00 2.77 +0.9%
Betfair 2.75 3.10 2.50 -1.4%
BetVictor 2.75 3.13 2.70 0.0%
Dafabet 2.75 3.15 2.75 +0.6%
Marathonbet 2.74 2.97 2.70 0.0%
Pinnacle 2.85 3.03 2.80 +1.3%
SBO 2.58 2.89 2.51 -2.8%
Unibet 2.80 3.00 2.70 0.0%
William Hill 2.70 2.90 2.62 -1.2%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.42 U 2.73
2.5 O 2.34 U 1.58
3.5 O 4.38 U 1.19
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.91 10 bks
NO
1.81 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.59
Away -0.5 1.45
Away -0.75 1.29
Away -1 1.14
Away -1.25 1.10
Away -1.5 1.09
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.