GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · DRAW 48% · Value: BTTS Yes 72%
CONF 61 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 16 · THU, 23 JUL · 00:30 LOCAL
HOUSTON DYNAMO
5TH · 26 PTS · LAST 5:
W D W L W
FT
1 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 1-0
DC UNITED
W D D L D
· 9TH · 22 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 40' Héctor Herrera
GOALS
⚽ 78' Tai Baribo
Héctor Herrera
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Héctor Herrera
Houston Dynamo · 78 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 57% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.0
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.99
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.85
63%
BALL POSSESSION %
37%
20
TOTAL SHOTS
7
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
1
91%
PASS ACCURACY %
85%
3
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 40'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Héctor Herrera
    HOU
  2. 53'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Jackson Hopkins · assist Matti Peltola
    DC
  3. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Duncan McGuire · assist Ezequiel Ponce
    HOU
  4. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Lucas Halter · assist Erik Sviatchenko
    HOU
  5. 67'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Silvan Hefti
    DC
  6. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Brandon Servania · assist Jared Stroud
    DC
  7. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Louis Munteanu · assist Nathan Ordaz
    DC
  8. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    João Peglow · assist Hosei Kijima
    DC
  9. 70'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Artur
    HOU
  10. 71'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Tai Baribo
    DC
  11. 72'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Andre Dozzell
    DC
  12. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Lawrence Ennali · assist Franco Negri
    HOU
  13. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Héctor Herrera · assist Diadié Samassékou
    HOU
  14. 78'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Tai Baribo · assist Nathan Ordaz
    DC
  15. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Mateusz Bogusz · assist Ondrej Lingr
    HOU
  16. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 6
    Felipe Andrade · assist Duane Holmes
    HOU
  17. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Andre Dozzell · assist Nikola Markovic
    DC
  18. 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jared Stroud
    DC
  19. 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card
    HOU
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
HOUSTON DYNAMO AVG 7.5
DC UNITED AVG 6.9
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.0
xG
0.9
20.0
TOTAL SHOTS
7.0
5.0
ON TARGET
1.0
8.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
7.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
63.0%
POSSESSION %
37.0%
528.0
PASSES
304.0
91.0%
PASS ACCURACY
85.0%
SET PIECES
3.0
CORNERS
3.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
8.0
FOULS
15.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
0.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
HOUSTON DYNAMO 4 shots
Héctor Herrera
1/2
Jack McGlynn
0/1
Guilherme
1/1
DC UNITED 3 shots
Tai Baribo
1/1
Jackson Hopkins
0/1
Matti Peltola
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.99 – 0.85
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.0 HT 40' 78' H 0.99 A 0.85 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 47%
53% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-1-4-1 vs 4-4-2
4-1-4-1
4-4-2
31
JONATHAN
11
LAWRENCE
 7.2
34
AGUSTIN R
5
LUCAS HAL
36
FELIPE AN
 7.5
6
ARTUR
 7.0
20
GUILHERME
 8.0
16
HéCTOR HE
 7.7
8
JACK MCGL
19
MATEUSZ B
23
DUNCAN MC
 6.9
1
SEAN JOHN
6
KEISUKE K
13
SEAN NEAL
 7.0
3
LUCAS BAR
5
SILVAN HE
7
JOãO PEGL
23
BRANDON S
21
ANDRE DOZ
 6.9
25
JACKSON H
11
LOUIS MUN
 7.0
9
TAI BARIB
SUBSTITUTES · HOUSTON DYNAMO
24
Ibrahim Aliy...
F
9
Ondrej Lingr
M
18
Diadié Samas...
M
30
Agustín Bouz...
M
14
Duane Holmes
M
28
Erik Sviatch...
D
21
Franco Negri
D
26
Blake Gillin...
G
10
Ezequiel Pon...
F
COACH: Ben Olsen
SUBSTITUTES · DC UNITED
22
Nathan Ordaz
F
32
Oscar Avilez
F
4
Matti Peltol...
D
8
Jared Stroud
M
77
Hosei Kijima
M
27
Nikola Marko...
D
20
Grant Leveil...
G
26
Alex Bono
G
17
Jacob Murrel...
F
COACH: Rene Weiler
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
HOU · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

DC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
V. Rivas
—
HOU MANAGER
Ben Olsen
head coach
DC MANAGER
Rene Weiler
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
HOU WINS
3
DRAWS
3
DC WINS
40%
30%
30%
15 – 14
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.90
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
22 Jun 2024
DC United
1 – 4
Houston Dynamo
W
07 May 2022
DC United
2 – 0
Houston Dynamo
L
19 May 2019
Houston Dynamo
2 – 1
DC United
W
17 Mar 2018
DC United
2 – 2
Houston Dynamo
D
22 Jul 2017
DC United
1 – 3
Houston Dynamo
W
HOUSTON DYNAMO LAST 5 OVERALL
W D W L W
DC UNITED LAST 5 OVERALL
W D D L D
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–1 · result locked
HOUSTON DYNAMO #5
Lost · already at 26 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
DC UNITED #9
Lost · already at 22 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 16 10 3 3 +21 33
D L W L W
1 Nashville SC 17 12 3 2 +21 39
L W W W W
2 Los Angeles FC 18 10 3 5 +16 33
W W W W L
2 Inter Miami 17 11 4 2 +13 37
W W W W W
3 San Jose Earthquakes 17 10 3 4 +15 33
D L W L L
3 New England Revolution 16 9 2 5 +7 29
W D L W L
4 Chicago Fire 16 8 2 6 +8 26
L L W W W
4 Real Salt Lake 16 8 2 6 +4 26
L L D W W
5 Houston Dynamo 16 8 2 6 -1 26
W D D W L
5 New York City FC 17 7 4 6 +7 25
W W L D W
6 FC Dallas 17 7 5 5 +7 26
L D W W L
6 Charlotte 17 7 4 6 +3 25
W D W W L
7 St. Louis City 17 7 4 6 0 25
W W W W D
7 FC Cincinnati 17 6 5 6 -1 23
L W W D L
8 New York Red Bulls 17 6 4 7 -11 22
L L W D W
8 Seattle Sounders 16 7 3 6 -1 24
L L L L L
9 Minnesota United FC 17 6 5 6 -5 23
D L D L L
9 DC United 17 5 7 5 -3 22
W D D D L
10 Portland Timbers 17 6 3 8 -1 21
W D W L L
10 Orlando City SC 17 6 2 9 -16 20
W W L D W
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 18 5 6 7 -5 21
D L L D W
11 Columbus Crew 17 5 4 8 -2 19
W L W D L
12 Toronto FC 17 3 7 7 -8 16
L D D L L
12 San Diego 17 5 5 7 +3 20
W L L D W
13 Colorado Rapids 17 6 1 10 +1 19
L W L L W
13 CF Montreal 17 4 3 10 -11 15
L L D D L
14 Austin 17 4 5 8 -13 17
L W L L L
14 Philadelphia Union 17 3 4 10 -9 13
W W L D L
15 Sporting Kansas City 17 4 2 11 -26 14
L W L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 17 3 3 11 -13 12
L D L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card
  • 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card · Jared Stroud
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Andre Dozzell
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 6 · Felipe Andrade
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Mateusz Bogusz
  • 78'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Tai Baribo
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Héctor Herrera
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Lawrence Ennali
  • 72'
    Card · Yellow Card · Andre Dozzell
  • 71'
    Card · Yellow Card · Tai Baribo
  • 70'
    Card · Yellow Card · Artur
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · João Peglow
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Louis Munteanu
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Brandon Servania
  • 67'
    Card · Yellow Card · Silvan Hefti
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Lucas Halter
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Duncan McGuire
  • 53'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Jackson Hopkins
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 0
  • 40'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Héctor Herrera
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
HOUSTON DYNAMO WIN
1.78
56.2% implied
↑ best 1.81
DRAW
3.75
26.7% implied
↑ best 3.87
DC UNITED WIN
4.30
23.3% implied
↑ best 4.50

Market favors Houston Dynamo. AI projects DRAW 48% · value bet BTTS Yes.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DRAW 48% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.81 3.80 4.00 +21.7%
Bet365 1.75 3.80 4.50 +21.7%
Betano 1.78 3.80 4.45 +21.7%
Betfair 1.75 3.80 4.40 +21.7%
BetVictor 1.75 3.80 4.20 +21.7%
Dafabet 1.79 3.85 4.50 +22.0%
Marathonbet 1.77 3.70 4.25 +21.0%
Pinnacle 1.81 3.87 4.46 +22.2%
SBO 1.77 3.57 4.16 +20.0%
Superbet 1.80 3.80 4.30 +21.7%
Unibet 1.77 3.70 4.35 +21.0%
William Hill 1.75 3.50 4.00 +19.4%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.22 U 4.07
2.5 O 1.74 U 2.07
3.5 O 2.82 U 1.41
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.67 9 bks
NO
2.09 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.40
Away -0.5 2.03
Away -0.75 1.81
Away -1 1.58
Away -1.25 1.44
Away -1.5 1.36
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.