GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 0–3 · BAYERN MüNCHEN 80% · Value: Over 2.5 72%
CONF 61 FULL ANALYSIS →
Bundesliga · REGULAR SEASON - 31 · SAT, 25 APR · 13:30 LOCAL
FSV MAINZ 05
10TH · 34 PTS · LAST 5:
D L L W W
FT
3 – 4
FULL TIME HT · 3-0
BAYERN MüNCHEN
W W W W W
· 1ST · 82 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 15' Dominik Kohr ⚽ 29' Paul Nebel ⚽ 45+2' Sheraldo Becker
GOALS
⚽ 53' N. Jackson ⚽ 73' M. Olise ⚽ 80' J. Musiala ⚽ 83' H. Kane
M. Olise
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
M. Olise
Bayern München · 51 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 23% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap

awaiting upload
Goals, key moments, post-match interviews
Highlightly publishes 30 min – 6 h after final whistle
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.29
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.97
30%
BALL POSSESSION %
70%
18
TOTAL SHOTS
11
8
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
75%
PASS ACCURACY %
90%
2
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 20 events
  1. 15'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Dominik Kohr · assist Kaishu Sano
    FSV
  2. 20'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Dominik Kohr
    FSV
  3. 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Paul Nebel
    FSV
  4. 33'
    Card · Yellow Card
    K. Laimer
    BAY
  5. 45'+2
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Sheraldo Becker
    FSV
  6. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    A. Pavlović · assist H. Kane
    BAY
  7. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    L. Díaz · assist M. Olise
    BAY
  8. 53'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    N. Jackson · assist K. Laimer
    BAY
  9. 57'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    A. Davies · assist J. Stanišić
    BAY
  10. 57'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Raphaël Guerreiro · assist J. Musiala
    BAY
  11. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Sheraldo Becker · assist Armindo Sieb
    FSV
  12. 73'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    M. Olise · assist K. Laimer
    BAY
  13. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Bara Ndiaye · assist J. Tah
    BAY
  14. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Nadiem Amiri · assist Lennard Maloney
    FSV
  15. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Silvan Widmer · assist Anthony Caci
    FSV
  16. 80'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    J. Musiala
    BAY
  17. 83'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    H. Kane
    BAY
  18. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Dominik Kohr · assist Nelson Weiper
    FSV
  19. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Paul Nebel · assist William Bøving
    FSV
  20. 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card
    M. Olise
    BAY
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
FSV MAINZ 05 AVG 7.3
BAYERN MüNCHEN AVG 7.5
  • M. Olise
    51' · 1G · 1 shots · 23.00% pass
    8.2
  • N. Jackson
    96' · 1G · 3 shots · 18.00% pass
    7.7
  • H. Kane
    51' · 1G · 1 shots · 6.00% pass
    7.3
  • J. Musiala
    39' · 1G · 2 shots · 13.00% pass
    7.3
  • J. Urbig
    96' · 21.00% pass
    7.2
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.3
xG
2.0
18.0
TOTAL SHOTS
11.0
8.0
ON TARGET
6.0
7.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
3.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
30.0%
POSSESSION %
70.0%
252.0
PASSES
618.0
75.0%
PASS ACCURACY
90.0%
SET PIECES
2.0
CORNERS
4.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
14.0
FOULS
10.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
2.0
GK SAVES
5.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
FSV MAINZ 05 11 shots
Sheraldo Becker
3/4
Nadiem Amiri
3/4
Paul Nebel
1/2
Kaishu Sano
0/1
BAYERN MüNCHEN 7 shots
N. Jackson
3/3
J. Musiala
1/2
M. Olise
1/1
H. Kane
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.29 – 1.97
1.8 1.4 0.9 0.5 2.3 0.0 HT 15' 29' 45' 53' 73' 80' 83' H 2.29 A 1.97 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 45%
55% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1
3-5-2
4-2-3-1
33
DANIEL BA
31
DOMINIK K
4
STEFAN PO
21
DANNY DA
2
PHILLIPP
 7.0
10
NADIEM AM
 7.3
6
KAISHU SA
 7.0
8
PAUL NEBE
30
SILVAN WI
 7.3
20
PHILLIP T
 7.7
23
SHERALDO
 7.2
40
J. URBIG
19
A. DAVIES
21
H. ITO
3
KIM MIN-J
27
K. LAIMER
45
A. PAVLOV
39
BARA NDIA
14
L. DíAZ
8
L. GORETZ
22
RAPHAëL G
 7.7
11
N. JACKSO
SUBSTITUTES · FSV MAINZ 05
11
Armindo Sieb
F
44
Nelson Weipe...
F
15
Lennard Malo...
M
24
Sota Kawasak...
M
19
Anthony Caci
D
48
Kacper Potul...
D
22
Nikolas Vera...
D
27
Robin Zentne...
G
14
William Bøvi...
F
COACH: Urs Fischer
SUBSTITUTES · BAYERN MüNCHEN
10
J. Musiala
M
17
M. Olise
M
44
J. Stanišić
D
4
J. Tah
D
34
D. Ofli
D
43
F. Pavic
D
1
M. Neuer
G
9
H. Kane
F
COACH: Vincent Kompany
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
FSV · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

BAY · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Martin Petersen, Germany
—
FSV MANAGER
Urs Fischer
head coach
BAY MANAGER
Vincent Kompany
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
2
FSV WINS
1
DRAWS
7
BAY WINS
20%
10%
70%
14 – 36
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
5.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
14 Dec 2025
Bayern München
2 – 2
FSV Mainz 05
D
26 Apr 2025
Bayern München
3 – 0
FSV Mainz 05
L
14 Dec 2024
FSV Mainz 05
2 – 1
Bayern München
W
09 Mar 2024
Bayern München
8 – 1
FSV Mainz 05
L
21 Oct 2023
FSV Mainz 05
1 – 3
Bayern München
L
FSV MAINZ 05 LAST 5 OVERALL
D L L W W
BAYERN MüNCHEN LAST 5 OVERALL
W W W W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–4 · result locked
FSV MAINZ 05 #10
Lost · already at 34 pts
BAYERN MüNCHEN #1
Won · already at 82 pts
Champions League
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Bayern München 31 26 4 1 +81 82
W W W W W
2 Borussia Dortmund 31 20 7 4 +34 67
W L L W W
3 RB Leipzig 31 19 5 7 +24 62
W W W W W
4 VfB Stuttgart 31 17 6 8 +20 57
D L W L W
5 1899 Hoffenheim 31 17 6 8 +16 57
W W D L L
6 Bayer Leverkusen 31 16 7 8 +20 55
W L W W D
7 Eintracht Frankfurt 31 11 10 10 -2 43
D L W D L
8 SC Freiburg 31 12 7 12 -8 43
L W W L W
9 FC Augsburg 31 10 7 14 -16 37
D W D D L
10 FSV Mainz 05 31 8 10 13 -10 34
L D L W W
11 Borussia Mönchengladbach 31 7 11 13 -14 32
D D L D D
12 Werder Bremen 31 8 8 15 -18 32
D W L L W
13 Union Berlin 31 8 8 15 -20 32
L L L D L
14 1. FC Köln 31 7 10 14 -8 31
L D W D D
15 Hamburger SV 31 7 10 14 -16 31
L L L D L
16 FC St. Pauli 31 6 8 17 -27 26
L D L D L
17 VfL Wolfsburg 31 6 7 18 -25 25
D W L L L
18 1. FC Heidenheim 31 5 7 19 -31 22
W L W D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card · M. Olise
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Paul Nebel
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Dominik Kohr
  • 83'
    Goal · Normal Goal · H. Kane
  • 80'
    Goal · Normal Goal · J. Musiala
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Silvan Widmer
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Nadiem Amiri
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Bara Ndiaye
  • 73'
    Goal · Normal Goal · M. Olise
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Sheraldo Becker
  • 57'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Raphaël Guerreiro
  • 57'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · A. Davies
  • 53'
    Goal · Normal Goal · N. Jackson
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · L. Díaz
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · A. Pavlović
  • HALF TIME · 3 – 0
  • 45'+2
    Goal · Normal Goal · Sheraldo Becker
  • 33'
    Card · Yellow Card · K. Laimer
    Tripping
  • 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Paul Nebel
  • 20'
    Card · Yellow Card · Dominik Kohr
    Roughing
  • 15'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Dominik Kohr
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
FSV MAINZ 05 WIN
4.07
24.6% implied
↑ best 4.27
DRAW
4.60
21.7% implied
↑ best 4.85
BAYERN MüNCHEN WIN
1.69
59.2% implied
↑ best 1.76

Market favors Bayern München. AI projects BAYERN MüNCHEN 80% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS BAYERN MüNCHEN 80% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.80 4.60 1.70 +21.2%
1xBet 4.27 4.72 1.76 +23.2%
888Sport 4.00 4.60 1.62 +18.3%
Bet365 3.80 4.75 1.70 +21.2%
Betano 4.05 4.80 1.75 +22.9%
Betfair 4.20 4.33 1.67 +20.1%
BetVictor 4.10 4.50 1.67 +20.1%
Dafabet 4.10 4.70 1.72 +21.9%
Marathonbet 4.25 4.75 1.71 +21.5%
Pinnacle 4.25 4.85 1.70 +21.2%
SBO 3.87 4.15 1.73 +22.2%
Unibet 4.25 4.50 1.64 +19.0%
William Hill 4.00 4.60 1.62 +18.3%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.08 U 7.21
2.5 O 1.32 U 3.24
3.5 O 1.86 U 1.95
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.37 10 bks
NO
2.91 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.27
Away -0.5 1.23
Away -0.75 1.15
Away -1 1.05
Away -1.5 1.04
Away -2.5 1.01
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.