GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 4–3 · FC CINCINNATI 72% · Value: Over 2.5 95%
CONF 81 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 16 · WED, 22 JUL · 23:30 LOCAL
FC CINCINNATI
7TH · 23 PTS · LAST 5:
L W D L D
FT
4 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 3-2
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS
D W L W D
· 1ST · 33 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 9' Pavel Bucha ⚽ 28' Kévin Denkey ⚽ 36' Evander ⚽ 56' Pavel Bucha
GOALS
⚽ 12' Jeevan Badwal ⚽ 25' Ryan Gauld ⚽ 58' Ryan Gauld
Evander
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Evander
FC Cincinnati · Captain · 93 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 🅰 1 assist · 27% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
9.0
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.56
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.82
38%
BALL POSSESSION %
62%
10
TOTAL SHOTS
19
6
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
84%
PASS ACCURACY %
90%
1
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 23 events
  1. 2'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Tristan Blackmon
    VAN
  2. 9'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Pavel Bucha · assist Samuel Gidi
    FC
  3. 12'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jeevan Badwal · assist Bruno Quiñonez
    VAN
  4. 17'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Mathías Laborda
    VAN
  5. 25'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ryan Gauld · assist Oliver Larraz
    VAN
  6. 28'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Kévin Denkey · assist Ender Echenique
    FC
  7. 36'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Evander · assist Gerardo Valenzuela
    FC
  8. 41'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Pavel Bucha
    FC
  9. 44'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Bruno Quiñonez · assist Cheick Tidiane Sabaly
    VAN
  10. 48'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Édier Ocampo
    VAN
  11. 56'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Pavel Bucha · assist Evander
    FC
  12. 58'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ryan Gauld · assist Jeevan Badwal
    VAN
  13. 59'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Andrés Cubas
    VAN
  14. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Jeevan Badwal · assist Jean-Claude Ngando
    VAN
  15. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Ryan Gauld · assist Nikola Djordjevic
    VAN
  16. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Ender Echenique · assist Bryan Ramirez
    FC
  17. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Kenji Mboma Dem · assist Tom Barlow
    FC
  18. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Miles Robinson · assist Kyle Smith
    FC
  19. 78'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Brian White
    VAN
  20. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Édier Ocampo · assist Ranko Veselinović
    VAN
  21. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Andrés Cubas · assist Rayan Elloumi
    VAN
  22. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Kévin Denkey · assist Ayoub Jabbari
    FC
  23. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Samuel Gidi · assist Teenage Hadebe
    FC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
FC CINCINNATI AVG 7.9
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.6
xG
1.8
10.0
TOTAL SHOTS
19.0
6.0
ON TARGET
6.0
1.0
OFF TARGET
7.0
3.0
BLOCKED
6.0
POSSESSION
38.0%
POSSESSION %
62.0%
394.0
PASSES
612.0
84.0%
PASS ACCURACY
90.0%
SET PIECES
1.0
CORNERS
3.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
3.0
DISCIPLINE
12.0
FOULS
13.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
5.0
3.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
FC CINCINNATI 6 shots
Evander
2/2
Pavel Bucha
2/2
Kévin Denkey
2/2
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS 6 shots
Ryan Gauld
2/3
Jeevan Badwal
1/1
Cheick Tidiane Sabaly
1/1
Bruno Quiñonez
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.56 – 1.82
1.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 1.8 0.0 HT 9' 28' 36' 56' 12' 25' 58' H 1.56 A 1.82 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 43%
57% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
13
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-3 vs 4-2-3-1
3-4-3
4-2-3-1
18
ROMAN CEL
11
SAMUEL GI
21
MATT MIAZ
12
MILES ROB
66
ENDER ECH
 7.3
5
OBINNA NW
22
GERARDO V
 8.3
20
PAVEL BUC
 9.0
10
EVANDER
 7.9
9
KéVIN DEN
17
KENJI MBO
1
YOHEI TAK
28
TATE JOHN
2
MATHíAS L
33
TRISTAN B
18
ÉDIER OCA
20
ANDRéS CU
8
OLIVER LA
 6.7
14
BRUNO QUI
 7.9
25
RYAN GAUL
 7.6
59
JEEVAN BA
24
BRIAN WHI
SUBSTITUTES · FC CINCINNATI
99
Ayoub Jabbar...
F
27
Tah Anunga
M
29
Bryan Ramire...
D
15
Teenage Hade...
D
4
Nick Hagglun...
D
2
Alvas Powell
D
24
Kyle Smith
D
13
Evan Louro
G
16
Tom Barlow
F
COACH: Pat Noonan
SUBSTITUTES · VANCOUVER WHITECAPS
13
Thomas Mülle...
F
26
Jean-Claude...
M
4
Ranko Veseli...
D
29
Mihail Ghera...
D
3
Sam Adekugbe
D
41
Nikola Djord...
D
32
Isaac Boehme...
G
7
Cheick Tidia...
F
19
Rayan Elloum...
F
COACH: Jesper Sorensen
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
FC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

VAN · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
J. Freemon
—
FC MANAGER
Pat Noonan
head coach
VAN MANAGER
Jesper Sorensen
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
FC WINS
2
DRAWS
1
VAN WINS
66.7%
33.3%
4 – 5
TOTAL GOALS · 3 MEETINGS
3.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 3 / 3
11 Jun 2023
Vancouver Whitecaps
1 – 1
FC Cincinnati
D
14 Jul 2022
FC Cincinnati
2 – 2
Vancouver Whitecaps
D
04 Aug 2019
FC Cincinnati
1 – 2
Vancouver Whitecaps
L
FC CINCINNATI LAST 5 OVERALL
L W D L D
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS LAST 5 OVERALL
D W L W D
MATCH IMPACT Final 4–3 · result locked
FC CINCINNATI #7
Won · already at 23 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS #1
Lost · already at 33 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 16 10 3 3 +21 33
D L W L W
1 Nashville SC 17 12 3 2 +21 39
L W W W W
2 Los Angeles FC 18 10 3 5 +16 33
W W W W L
2 Inter Miami 17 11 4 2 +13 37
W W W W W
3 San Jose Earthquakes 17 10 3 4 +15 33
D L W L L
3 New England Revolution 16 9 2 5 +7 29
W D L W L
4 Chicago Fire 16 8 2 6 +8 26
L L W W W
4 Real Salt Lake 16 8 2 6 +4 26
L L D W W
5 Houston Dynamo 16 8 2 6 -1 26
W D D W L
5 New York City FC 17 7 4 6 +7 25
W W L D W
6 FC Dallas 17 7 5 5 +7 26
L D W W L
6 Charlotte 17 7 4 6 +3 25
W D W W L
7 St. Louis City 17 7 4 6 0 25
W W W W D
7 FC Cincinnati 17 6 5 6 -1 23
L W W D L
8 New York Red Bulls 17 6 4 7 -11 22
L L W D W
8 Seattle Sounders 16 7 3 6 -1 24
L L L L L
9 Minnesota United FC 17 6 5 6 -5 23
D L D L L
9 DC United 17 5 7 5 -3 22
W D D D L
10 Portland Timbers 17 6 3 8 -1 21
W D W L L
10 Orlando City SC 17 6 2 9 -16 20
W W L D W
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 18 5 6 7 -5 21
D L L D W
11 Columbus Crew 17 5 4 8 -2 19
W L W D L
12 Toronto FC 17 3 7 7 -8 16
L D D L L
12 San Diego 17 5 5 7 +3 20
W L L D W
13 Colorado Rapids 17 6 1 10 +1 19
L W L L W
13 CF Montreal 17 4 3 10 -11 15
L L D D L
14 Austin 17 4 5 8 -13 17
L W L L L
14 Philadelphia Union 17 3 4 10 -9 13
W W L D L
15 Sporting Kansas City 17 4 2 11 -26 14
L W L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 17 3 3 11 -13 12
L D L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Samuel Gidi
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Kévin Denkey
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Andrés Cubas
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Édier Ocampo
  • 78'
    Card · Yellow Card · Brian White
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Miles Robinson
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Kenji Mboma Dem
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Ender Echenique
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Ryan Gauld
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Jeevan Badwal
  • 59'
    Card · Yellow Card · Andrés Cubas
  • 58'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ryan Gauld
  • 56'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Pavel Bucha
  • 48'
    Card · Yellow Card · Édier Ocampo
  • HALF TIME · 3 – 2
  • 44'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Bruno Quiñonez
  • 41'
    Card · Yellow Card · Pavel Bucha
  • 36'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Evander
  • 28'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Kévin Denkey
  • 25'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ryan Gauld
  • 17'
    Card · Yellow Card · Mathías Laborda
  • 12'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jeevan Badwal
  • 9'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Pavel Bucha
  • 2'
    Card · Yellow Card · Tristan Blackmon
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
FC CINCINNATI WIN
3.66
27.3% implied
↑ best 3.80
DRAW
4.11
24.3% implied
↑ best 4.30
VANCOUVER WHITEC WIN
1.83
54.6% implied
↑ best 1.87

Market favors Vancouver Whitecaps. AI projects FC CINCINNATI 72% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS FC CINCINNATI 72% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.40 4.30 1.84 +42.6%
Bet365 3.60 4.10 1.85 +44.2%
Betano 3.70 4.25 1.83 +45.0%
Betfair 3.75 4.00 1.85 +45.3%
BetVictor 3.50 4.20 1.83 +43.4%
Dafabet 3.80 4.20 1.85 +45.7%
Marathonbet 3.70 4.05 1.80 +45.0%
Pinnacle 3.80 4.21 1.87 +45.7%
SBO 3.60 4.00 1.79 +44.2%
Superbet 3.80 4.15 1.83 +45.7%
Unibet 3.70 4.10 1.83 +45.0%
William Hill 3.60 3.80 1.80 +44.2%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.10 U 6.72
2.5 O 1.36 U 3.04
3.5 O 1.93 U 1.86
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.37 9 bks
NO
2.90 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.34
Away -0.5 1.28
Away -0.75 1.17
Away -1 1.09
Away -1.25 1.09
Away -1.5 1.07
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.