GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · DRAW 52% · Value: BTTS Yes 92%
CONF 68 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 17 · SAT, 25 JUL · 23:30 LOCAL
DC UNITED
9TH · 22 PTS · LAST 5:
D D D L D
FT
2 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 1-0
TORONTO FC
D D L L L
· 12TH · 16 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 41' Kye Rowles ⚽ 90+10' Tai Baribo (P)
GOALS
⚽ 76' Theo Corbeanu
Theo Corbeanu
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Theo Corbeanu
Toronto FC · 92 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 23% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.3
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.43
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.42
45%
BALL POSSESSION %
55%
17
TOTAL SHOTS
13
8
SHOTS ON TARGET
7
79%
PASS ACCURACY %
84%
8
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 14 events
  1. 41'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Kye Rowles · assist Keisuke Kurokawa
    DC
  2. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Zane Monlouis · assist Alonso Coello
    TOR
  3. 53'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Louis Munteanu
    DC
  4. 54'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Derrick Etienne · assist Đorđe Mihailović
    TOR
  5. 54'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Emilio Aristizábal · assist Deandre Kerr
    TOR
  6. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    João Peglow · assist Jared Stroud
    DC
  7. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Jackson Hopkins · assist Matti Peltola
    DC
  8. 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Theo Corbeanu
    TOR
  9. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Brandon Servania · assist Hosei Kijima
    DC
  10. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Kye Rowles · assist Sean Nealis
    DC
  11. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Louis Munteanu · assist Nathan Ordaz
    DC
  12. 88'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jonathan Osorio
    TOR
  13. 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Theo Corbeanu · assist Malik Henry
    TOR
  14. 90'+10
    Goal · Penalty
    Tai Baribo
    DC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
DC UNITED AVG 7.8
TORONTO FC AVG 7.6
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.4
xG
1.4
17.0
TOTAL SHOTS
13.0
8.0
ON TARGET
7.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
4.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
45.0%
POSSESSION %
55.0%
313.0
PASSES
399.0
79.0%
PASS ACCURACY
84.0%
SET PIECES
8.0
CORNERS
4.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
13.0
FOULS
7.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
6.0
GK SAVES
6.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
DC UNITED 2 shots
Kye Rowles
1/1
Andre Dozzell
1/1
TORONTO FC 3 shots
Alonso Coello
0/2
Theo Corbeanu
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.43 – 1.42
1.9 1.5 1 0.5 2.4 0.0 HT 41' 90' 76' H 2.43 A 1.42 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 57%
43% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
6
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-4-2 vs 3-4-2-1
4-4-2
3-4-2-1
7.6
1
SEAN JOHN
 7.9
6
KEISUKE K
 7.9
15
KYE ROWLE
3
LUCAS BAR
 7.7
5
SILVAN HE
7
JOãO PEGL
 7.7
21
ANDRE DOZ
23
BRANDON S
25
JACKSON H
9
TAI BARIB
11
LOUIS MUN
 7.9
1
LUKA GAVR
38
JACKSON G
 8.0
25
WALKER ZI
12
ZANE MONL
20
DáNIEL SA
21
JONATHAN
 7.0
22
RICHIE LA
19
KOBE FRAN
11
DERRICK E
 8.3
7
THEO CORB
17
EMILIO AR
SUBSTITUTES · DC UNITED
22
Nathan Ordaz
F
77
Hosei Kijima
M
8
Jared Stroud
M
4
Matti Peltol...
D
27
Nikola Marko...
D
13
Sean Nealis
D
26
Alex Bono
G
32
Oscar Avilez
F
COACH: Rene Weiler
SUBSTITUTES · TORONTO FC
99
Jules-Anthon...
F
78
Malik Henry
M
10
Đorđe Mihail...
M
14
Alonso Coell...
M
44
Raheem Edwar...
D
77
Adisa De Ros...
G
23
William Yarb...
G
29
Deandre Kerr
F
COACH: Robin Fraser
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
DC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

TOR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Sergiy Boyko, Ukraine
—
DC MANAGER
Rene Weiler
head coach
TOR MANAGER
Robin Fraser
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
DC WINS
3
DRAWS
3
TOR WINS
40%
30%
30%
24 – 17
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
4.10
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
10 May 2025
Toronto FC
2 – 0
DC United
L
23 Feb 2025
DC United
2 – 2
Toronto FC
D
31 Aug 2024
Toronto FC
1 – 3
DC United
W
01 Jun 2024
DC United
2 – 2
Toronto FC
D
27 May 2023
Toronto FC
2 – 1
DC United
L
DC UNITED LAST 5 OVERALL
D D D L D
TORONTO FC LAST 5 OVERALL
D D L L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–1 · result locked
DC UNITED #9
Won · already at 22 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
TORONTO FC #12
Lost · already at 16 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 16 10 3 3 +21 33
D L W L W
1 Nashville SC 17 12 3 2 +21 39
L W W W W
2 Los Angeles FC 18 10 3 5 +16 33
W W W W L
2 Inter Miami 17 11 4 2 +13 37
W W W W W
3 San Jose Earthquakes 17 10 3 4 +15 33
D L W L L
3 New England Revolution 16 9 2 5 +7 29
W D L W L
4 Chicago Fire 16 8 2 6 +8 26
L L W W W
4 Real Salt Lake 16 8 2 6 +4 26
L L D W W
5 Houston Dynamo 16 8 2 6 -1 26
W D D W L
5 New York City FC 17 7 4 6 +7 25
W W L D W
6 FC Dallas 17 7 5 5 +7 26
L D W W L
6 Charlotte 17 7 4 6 +3 25
W D W W L
7 St. Louis City 17 7 4 6 0 25
W W W W D
7 FC Cincinnati 17 6 5 6 -1 23
L W W D L
8 New York Red Bulls 17 6 4 7 -11 22
L L W D W
8 Seattle Sounders 16 7 3 6 -1 24
L L L L L
9 Minnesota United FC 17 6 5 6 -5 23
D L D L L
9 DC United 17 5 7 5 -3 22
W D D D L
10 Portland Timbers 17 6 3 8 -1 21
W D W L L
10 Orlando City SC 17 6 2 9 -16 20
W W L D W
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 18 5 6 7 -5 21
D L L D W
11 Columbus Crew 17 5 4 8 -2 19
W L W D L
12 Toronto FC 17 3 7 7 -8 16
L D D L L
12 San Diego 17 5 5 7 +3 20
W L L D W
13 Colorado Rapids 17 6 1 10 +1 19
L W L L W
13 CF Montreal 17 4 3 10 -11 15
L L D D L
14 Austin 17 4 5 8 -13 17
L W L L L
14 Philadelphia Union 17 3 4 10 -9 13
W W L D L
15 Sporting Kansas City 17 4 2 11 -26 14
L W L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 17 3 3 11 -13 12
L D L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+10
    Goal · Penalty · Tai Baribo
  • 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Theo Corbeanu
  • 88'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jonathan Osorio
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Louis Munteanu
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Kye Rowles
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Brandon Servania
  • 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Theo Corbeanu
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Jackson Hopkins
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · João Peglow
  • 54'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Emilio Aristizábal
  • 54'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Derrick Etienne
  • 53'
    Card · Yellow Card · Louis Munteanu
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Zane Monlouis
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 0
  • 41'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Kye Rowles
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
DC UNITED WIN
2.13
46.9% implied
↑ best 2.19
DRAW
3.53
28.3% implied
↑ best 3.70
TORONTO FC WIN
3.22
31.1% implied
↑ best 3.30

Market favors DC United. AI projects DRAW 52% · value bet BTTS Yes.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DRAW 52% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.12 3.55 3.15 +23.8%
Bet365 2.15 3.60 3.20 +24.2%
Betano 2.15 3.70 3.15 +25.0%
Betfair 2.10 3.50 3.30 +23.4%
BetVictor 2.10 3.50 3.20 +23.4%
Dafabet 2.16 3.65 3.30 +24.6%
Marathonbet 2.08 3.54 3.24 +23.8%
Pinnacle 2.19 3.68 3.28 +24.8%
SBO 2.15 3.28 3.12 +21.5%
Superbet 2.15 3.55 3.30 +23.8%
Unibet 2.10 3.50 3.30 +23.4%
William Hill 2.15 3.30 3.10 +21.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.24 U 3.93
2.5 O 1.80 U 2.01
3.5 O 2.95 U 1.38
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.64 9 bks
NO
2.14 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.94
Away -0.5 1.70
Away -0.75 1.52
Away -1 1.34
Away -1.25 1.29
Away -1.5 1.23
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.