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Copa Libertadores · GROUP STAGE - 5 · THU, 21 MAY · 02:00 LOCAL
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CUSCO
FT
2 – 3
FULL TIME
INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN
⚽ 78' Gu-rum Choi ⚽ 90+4' Aldair Fuentes
GOALS
⚽ 13' Francisco Fydriszewski ⚽ 90+1' Baldomero Perlaza ⚽ 90+7' Alexis Serna
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 38/100 LOW
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
CUS
1 – 1
IND
most likely scoreline · 14.1% probability
AI PICKS CUSCO TO WIN 41%
FT 2 – 3
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 1 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
CUS WIN 41%
DRAW 28%
IND WIN 31%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — 1X

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 69% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 69% avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Thin data (2-3 recent matches per team, no season xG) limits confidence; Cusco slight home edge negated by poor form and table position.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY CUSCO FAVORED
41%
Thin data (2-3 recent matches per team, no season xG) limits confidence; Cusco slight home edge negated by poor form and table position.
+30.0%
Cusco bottom of mini-table (1 pt, GF 2/GA 6) vs Medellin 3rd (4 pts) — away team quality superior
+25.0%
Cusco home form (D) and overall form (DLL) v. weak; Medellin 1-0 winner in H2H recent meeting
+20.0%
WHY INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN CHALLENGED
31%
Very sparse data (5-game samples incomplete, no xG/clean sheets, early Libertadores stage) — treat prediction as low-conviction baseline
+15.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • Very sparse data (5-game samples incomplete, no xG/clean sheets, early Libertadores stage) — treat prediction as low-conviction baseline
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 13' FRANCISCO ⚽ 78' GU-RUM CHO ⚽ 91' BALDOMERO ⚽ 94' ALDAIR FUE ⚽ 97' ALEXIS SER
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 5 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 14.1%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
13.5
13.0
6.2
2.0
0.5
0.1
·
1
14.1
13.5
6.5
2.1
0.5
0.1
·
2
7.3
7.0
3.4
1.1
0.3
·
·
3
2.5
2.4
1.2
0.4
0.1
·
·
4
0.7
0.6
0.3
0.1
·
·
·
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
1 — 0 14.1%
0 — 0 13.5%
1 — 1 13.5%
0 — 1 13.0%
2 — 0 7.3%
Top 5 = 61.4% · rest 38.6%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.39
41.0%
2.44
-2.2%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.39
69.0%
1.45
-3.9%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.30
72.0%
1.39
-6.4%
—
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.28
28.0%
3.57
-8.1%
—
Draw or AWAY (X2)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.54
59.0%
1.69
-9.2%
—
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.93
31.0%
3.23
-9.3%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.82
46.0%
2.17
-16.4%
—
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.62
51.0%
1.96
-17.2%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.