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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–3 · NEW YORK RED BULLS 95% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 13 · SAT, 09 MAY · 18:30 LOCAL
CHICAGO FIRE
3RD · 36 PTS · LAST 5:
D W W W L
FT
1 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
NEW YORK RED BULLS
D L L W L
· 8TH · 26 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 87' D. Nealis (OG)
GOALS
⚽ 45' J. Ruvalcaba ⚽ 49' C. Cowell ⚽ 81' E. Choupo-Moting (P)
D. Nealis
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
D. Nealis
New York Red Bulls · 97 mins
· 27% pass acc
RATING
7.7
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Major League Soccer: Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls
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📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.91
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.48
64%
BALL POSSESSION %
36%
15
TOTAL SHOTS
8
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
85%
PASS ACCURACY %
76%
6
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 8'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside
    Jonathan Bamba
    CHI
  2. 18'
    Card · Yellow Card
    R. Voloder
    NEW
  3. 45'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    J. Ruvalcaba · assist E. Forsberg
    NEW
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    J. Hall · assist E. Choupo-Moting
    NEW
  5. 49'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    C. Cowell · assist R. Donkor
    NEW
  6. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    E. Forsberg · assist Gustav Berggren
    NEW
  7. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Jonathan Bamba · assist P. Dithejane
    CHI
  8. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    C. Cowell · assist Rafael Mosquera
    NEW
  9. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    M. Dos Santos · assist O. Valencia
    NEW
  10. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    A. Saletros · assist Sergio Oregel
    CHI
  11. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jonathan Dean · assist Jason Shokalook
    CHI
  12. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Dje Tah D'Avilla · assist Mauricio Pineda
    CHI
  13. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    R. Voloder · assist Justin Che
    NEW
  14. 81'
    Goal · Penalty
    E. Choupo-Moting
    NEW
  15. 82'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Maren Haile-Selassie
    CHI
  16. 82'
    Card · Yellow Card
    J. Ruvalcaba
    NEW
  17. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Maren Haile-Selassie · assist Dylan Borso
    CHI
  18. 87'
    Goal · Own Goal
    D. Nealis
    CHI
  19. 90'+6
    Card · Yellow Card
    O. Valencia
    NEW
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
CHICAGO FIRE AVG 6.9
NEW YORK RED BULLS AVG 7.4
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.9
xG
1.5
15.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
4.0
ON TARGET
4.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
7.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
64.0%
POSSESSION %
36.0%
567.0
PASSES
321.0
85.0%
PASS ACCURACY
76.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
3.0
4.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
7.0
FOULS
10.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
1.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
CHICAGO FIRE 3 shots
Philip Zinckernagel
1/2
Maren Haile-Selassie
0/1
NEW YORK RED BULLS 4 shots
C. Cowell
2/2
J. Ruvalcaba
1/1
Rafael Mosquera
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.91 – 1.48
1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.0 HT 87' 45' 49' 81' H 0.91 A 1.48 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 42%
58% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-1-4-1
4-2-3-1
4-1-4-1
1
CHRIS BRA
15
ANDREW GU
3
JACK ELLI
 6.7
16
JOEL WATE
24
JONATHAN
 7.2
42
DJE TAH D
 7.2
6
A. SALETR
19
JONATHAN
 6.7
7
MAREN HAI
 6.7
11
PHILIP ZI
9
H. CUYPER
34
E. HORVAT
56
M. DOS SA
6
R. VOLODE
26
T. PARKER
 7.7
12
D. NEALIS
 7.6
15
A. MEHMET
 7.3
11
J. RUVALC
10
E. FORSBE
48
R. DONKOR
 7.2
7
C. COWELL
16
J. HALL
SUBSTITUTES · CHICAGO FIRE
20
Jason Shokal...
F
35
Sergio Orege...
M
12
P. Dithejane
F
22
Mauricio Pin...
D
27
Dylan Borso
F
4
M. Mbokazi
D
14
V. Radojevic
D
44
Josh Cohen
G
8
Chris Muelle...
F
COACH: Mario Barcena
SUBSTITUTES · NEW YORK RED BULLS
79
Rafael Mosqu...
F
39
Nehuen Bened...
M
4
Gustav Bergg...
M
37
M. Sofo
F
3
Jahkeele Mar...
D
2
Justin Che
D
5
O. Valencia
D
77
J. McCarthy
G
13
E. Choupo-Mo...
F
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
CHI · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

NEW · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
A. Chapman
—
CHI MANAGER
Mario Barcena
head coach
NEW MANAGER
—
unannounced
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
CHI WINS
4
DRAWS
3
NEW WINS
30%
40%
30%
13 – 14
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.70
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
22 Aug 2026
New York Red Bulls
1 – 1
Chicago Fire
D
27 Jul 2025
Chicago Fire
1 – 0
New York Red Bulls
W
05 Apr 2025
New York Red Bulls
2 – 1
Chicago Fire
L
15 Sep 2024
Chicago Fire
2 – 1
New York Red Bulls
W
13 Apr 2024
New York Red Bulls
0 – 0
Chicago Fire
D
CHICAGO FIRE LAST 5 OVERALL
D W W W L
NEW YORK RED BULLS LAST 5 OVERALL
D L L W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–3 · result locked
CHICAGO FIRE #3
Lost · already at 36 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
NEW YORK RED BULLS #8
Won · already at 26 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 20 12 4 4 +27 40
W L W D D
1 Nashville SC 21 15 4 2 +26 49
W W W D L
2 Houston Dynamo 21 12 2 7 +4 38
L W W W W
2 Inter Miami 21 11 6 4 +9 39
L D L D W
3 Los Angeles FC 22 10 5 7 +14 35
D L L D W
3 Chicago Fire 20 11 3 6 +11 36
D W W W L
4 New England Revolution 21 10 4 7 +7 34
D W L L D
4 San Jose Earthquakes 21 10 3 8 +6 33
L L L L D
5 FC Dallas 21 9 6 6 +4 33
L W W D L
5 Charlotte 21 9 5 7 +6 32
W D W L W
6 St. Louis City 21 9 6 6 +3 33
W D W D W
6 FC Cincinnati 21 8 7 6 +2 31
D W D W L
7 Colorado Rapids 21 9 1 11 +2 28
L W W W L
7 New York City FC 21 7 6 8 +5 27
D L L D W
8 New York Red Bulls 21 7 5 9 -12 26
D L L W L
8 Real Salt Lake 20 8 4 8 +2 28
L L D D L
9 Portland Timbers 21 8 4 9 +1 28
D W L W W
9 Orlando City SC 21 7 3 11 -17 24
W L D L W
10 Minnesota United FC 21 7 7 7 -2 28
W L D D D
10 Toronto FC 21 5 9 7 -6 24
W D W D L
11 San Diego 21 7 6 8 +5 27
W L W D W
11 DC United 21 5 9 7 -8 24
L L D D W
12 Philadelphia Union 21 5 6 10 -7 21
D D W W W
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 22 6 8 8 -5 26
D W L D D
13 Seattle Sounders 20 7 4 9 -5 25
D L L L L
13 CF Montreal 21 5 6 10 -10 21
D W D D L
14 Austin 21 5 6 10 -14 21
D W L L L
14 Columbus Crew 21 5 5 11 -6 20
L L L D W
15 Sporting Kansas City 20 4 3 13 -30 15
D L L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 20 5 3 12 -12 18
W W L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+6
    Card · Yellow Card · O. Valencia
  • 87'
    Goal · Own Goal · D. Nealis
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Maren Haile-Selassie
  • 82'
    Card · Yellow Card · J. Ruvalcaba
  • 82'
    Card · Yellow Card · Maren Haile-Selassie
  • 81'
    Goal · Penalty · E. Choupo-Moting
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · R. Voloder
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Dje Tah D'Avilla
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jonathan Dean
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · A. Saletros
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · M. Dos Santos
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · C. Cowell
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Jonathan Bamba
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · E. Forsberg
  • 49'
    Goal · Normal Goal · C. Cowell
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · J. Hall
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 45'
    Goal · Normal Goal · J. Ruvalcaba
  • 18'
    Card · Yellow Card · R. Voloder
  • 8'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside · Jonathan Bamba
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
CHICAGO FIRE WIN
1.47
68% implied
↑ best 1.51
DRAW
4.89
20.4% implied
↑ best 5.25
NEW YORK RED BUL WIN
5.54
18.1% implied
↑ best 6.10

Market favors Chicago Fire. AI projects NEW YORK RED BULLS 95% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS NEW YORK RED BULLS 95% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.49 4.90 5.10 +75.4%
888Sport 1.44 4.50 5.00 +75.0%
Bet365 1.45 5.25 5.75 +77.6%
Betano 1.50 5.20 6.10 +78.6%
Betfair 1.44 4.75 5.50 +76.8%
BetVictor 1.40 5.00 6.00 +78.3%
Dafabet 1.51 5.00 5.60 +77.1%
Marathonbet 1.44 4.90 5.75 +77.6%
Pinnacle 1.48 5.11 6.01 +78.4%
SBO 1.44 4.79 5.42 +76.5%
Unibet 1.50 4.75 5.30 +76.1%
William Hill 1.50 4.50 5.00 +75.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.08 U 7.21
2.5 O 1.33 U 3.19
3.5 O 1.87 U 1.89
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.44 9 bks
NO
2.61 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 3.23
Away -0.5 2.65
Away -0.75 2.41
Away -1 2.14
Away -1.25 1.89
Away -1.5 1.67
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.