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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · CHARLOTTE 44%
CONF 48 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 14 · WED, 13 MAY · 23:15 LOCAL
CHARLOTTE
6TH · 21 PTS · LAST 5:
W W D L L
FT
0 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
NEW YORK CITY FC
L D W L L
· 8TH · 19 PTS · LAST 5
GOALS
⚽ 8' Nicolás Fernández
Nicolás Fernández
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Nicolás Fernández
New York City FC · 81 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 28% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
7.6
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Major League Soccer: Charlotte vs New York City FC
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.51
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.55
46%
BALL POSSESSION %
54%
5
TOTAL SHOTS
3
2
SHOTS ON TARGET
1
89%
PASS ACCURACY %
89%
8
CORNERS
1
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 8'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Nicolás Fernández · assist Hannes Wolf
    NEW
  2. 29'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Nicolás Fernández
    NEW
  3. 33'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Agustin Ojeda
    NEW
  4. 36'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Djibril Diani
    CHA
  5. 38'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Pep Biel
    CHA
  6. 40'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Hannes Wolf
    NEW
  7. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Agustin Ojeda · assist Malachi Jones
    NEW
  8. 71'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Wilfried Zaha
    CHA
  9. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Idan Toklomati · assist Archie Goodwin
    CHA
  10. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Kerwin Calderón Vargas · assist Rodolfo Aloko
    CHA
  11. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Nicolás Fernández · assist Andrés Perea
    NEW
  12. 82'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Keaton Parks · assist Arnau Farnos
    NEW
  13. 82'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Maxi Moralez · assist Seymour Garfield-Reid
    NEW
  14. 84'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Malachi Jones
    NEW
  15. 87'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Archie Goodwin
    CHA
  16. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Pep Biel · assist Tyger Smalls
    CHA
  17. 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Raul Gustavo
    NEW
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
CHARLOTTE AVG 7.0
NEW YORK CITY FC AVG 7.2
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.5
xG
0.6
5.0
TOTAL SHOTS
3.0
2.0
ON TARGET
1.0
2.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
1.0
BLOCKED
0.0
POSSESSION
46.0%
POSSESSION %
54.0%
404.0
PASSES
486.0
89.0%
PASS ACCURACY
89.0%
SET PIECES
8.0
CORNERS
1.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
13.0
FOULS
18.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
0.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
CHARLOTTE 2 shots
Kerwin Calderón Vargas
1/2
NEW YORK CITY FC 1 shots
Nicolás Fernández
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.51 – 0.55
0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.0 HT 8' H 0.51 A 0.55 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 41%
59% A
7
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
1
KRISTIJAN
23
DAVID SCH
 6.7
3
TIM REAM
 7.0
44
MORRISON
 6.9
14
NATHAN BY
17
LUCA DE L
28
DJIBRIL D
 7.2
10
WILFRIED
16
PEP BIEL
 7.0
18
KERWIN CA
9
IDAN TOKL
49
MATTHEW F
2
NICO CAVA
 7.5
34
RAUL GUST
 7.0
13
THIAGO MA
24
TAYVON GR
5
KAI TREWI
 6.9
55
KEATON PA
17
HANNES WO
 6.9
10
MAXI MORA
26
AGUSTIN O
 7.6
7
NICOLáS F
SUBSTITUTES · CHARLOTTE
25
Tyger Smalls
F
37
Rodolfo Alok...
F
48
Aron John
M
11
Liel Abada
F
13
Brandt Broni...
M
4
Andrew Prive...
D
35
Will Cleary
D
21
Tyler Miller
G
7
Archie Goodw...
F
COACH: Dean Smith
SUBSTITUTES · NEW YORK CITY FC
99
Seymour Garf...
F
87
Arnau Farno...
F
29
Máximo Carri...
M
8
Andrés Perea
M
32
Jonathan Sho...
M
15
Kevin Pierre
M
19
Strahinja Ta...
D
30
Tomás Romero
G
88
Malachi Jone...
F
COACH: Pascal Jansen
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
CHA · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

NEW · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
J. Freemon
—
CHA MANAGER
Dean Smith
head coach
NEW MANAGER
Pascal Jansen
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
CHA WINS
2
DRAWS
4
NEW WINS
40%
20%
40%
11 – 12
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.30
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
18 Apr 2026
New York City FC
1 – 2
Charlotte
W
08 Nov 2025
Charlotte
1 – 3
New York City FC
L
01 Nov 2025
New York City FC
0 – 0
Charlotte
D
28 Oct 2025
Charlotte
0 – 1
New York City FC
L
20 Sep 2025
New York City FC
2 – 0
Charlotte
L
CHARLOTTE LAST 5 OVERALL
W W D L L
NEW YORK CITY FC LAST 5 OVERALL
L D W L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 0–1 · result locked
CHARLOTTE #6
Lost · already at 21 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
NEW YORK CITY FC #8
Won · already at 19 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 14 10 2 2 +22 32
W L W D D
1 Nashville SC 14 10 3 1 +20 33
W W W D D
2 San Jose Earthquakes 15 10 2 3 +19 32
W L L D D
2 Inter Miami 15 9 4 2 +11 31
W W W W L
3 Real Salt Lake 14 8 2 4 +7 26
D W W L W
3 Chicago Fire 14 8 2 4 +11 26
W W W L L
4 New England Revolution 14 8 1 5 +4 25
L W L W W
4 FC Dallas 15 7 4 4 +8 25
W W L W W
5 Los Angeles FC 15 7 3 5 +7 24
W L L L D
5 New York Red Bulls 15 6 4 5 -7 22
W D W W L
6 Seattle Sounders 13 7 3 3 +6 24
L L W D D
6 Charlotte 15 6 3 6 +1 21
W W L D L
7 Houston Dynamo 14 7 1 6 -4 22
D W L W W
7 FC Cincinnati 15 5 5 5 -1 20
W D L D W
8 New York City FC 15 5 4 6 +4 19
L D W W L
8 Minnesota United FC 15 6 4 5 -4 22
D L L D W
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 15 5 5 5 0 20
D W L W D
9 DC United 15 4 6 5 -4 18
D D L D W
10 San Diego 15 4 5 6 +3 17
L D W D D
10 Columbus Crew 15 4 4 7 -2 16
W D L L L
11 Colorado Rapids 15 5 1 9 +1 16
L L W L L
11 CF Montreal 14 4 2 8 -9 14
D L D W L
12 Orlando City SC 15 4 2 9 -21 14
L D W L W
12 St. Louis City 14 4 4 6 -4 16
W D W W L
13 Portland Timbers 14 4 2 8 -6 14
L L D W L
13 Toronto FC 14 3 5 6 -7 14
L L L D L
14 Austin 15 3 5 7 -12 14
L L L D W
14 Atlanta United FC 14 3 2 9 -9 11
L D L W W
15 Sporting Kansas City 14 3 2 9 -22 11
L W W L D
15 Philadelphia Union 15 1 4 10 -12 7
L D L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Raul Gustavo
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Pep Biel
  • 87'
    Card · Yellow Card · Archie Goodwin
  • 84'
    Card · Yellow Card · Malachi Jones
  • 82'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Maxi Moralez
  • 82'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Keaton Parks
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Nicolás Fernández
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Kerwin Calderón Vargas
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Idan Toklomati
  • 71'
    Card · Yellow Card · Wilfried Zaha
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Agustin Ojeda
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 40'
    Card · Yellow Card · Hannes Wolf
  • 38'
    Card · Yellow Card · Pep Biel
  • 36'
    Card · Yellow Card · Djibril Diani
  • 33'
    Card · Yellow Card · Agustin Ojeda
  • 29'
    Card · Yellow Card · Nicolás Fernández
  • 8'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Nicolás Fernández
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
CHARLOTTE WIN
2.33
42.9% implied
↑ best 2.45
DRAW
3.44
29.1% implied
↑ best 3.60
NEW YORK CITY FC WIN
2.88
34.7% implied
↑ best 3.00

Market favors Charlotte. AI projects CHARLOTTE 44%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS CHARLOTTE 44% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.28 3.50 2.88 +0.1%
888Sport 2.15 3.30 3.00 -2.3%
Bet365 2.35 3.60 2.88 +1.4%
Betano 2.45 3.40 2.85 +3.2%
Betfair 2.30 3.40 2.88 +0.5%
BetVictor 2.30 3.50 2.88 +0.5%
Dafabet 2.38 3.60 2.95 +2.0%
Marathonbet 2.38 3.42 2.79 +2.0%
Pinnacle 2.40 3.58 2.97 +2.3%
SBO 2.41 3.28 2.71 +2.5%
Unibet 2.28 3.45 2.95 +0.1%
William Hill 2.30 3.30 2.80 +0.5%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.23 U 3.99
2.5 O 1.77 U 2.04
3.5 O 2.88 U 1.39
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.60 9 bks
NO
2.22 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.77
Away -0.5 1.59
Away -0.75 1.42
Away -1 1.26
Away -1.25 1.22
Away -1.5 1.17
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.