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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–0 · ATLETICO MADRID 48%
CONF 48 FULL ANALYSIS →
La Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 35 · SAT, 09 MAY · 16:30 LOCAL
ATLETICO MADRID
4TH · 69 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W L W
FT
0 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
CELTA VIGO
W D L W L
· 6TH · 54 PTS · LAST 5
GOALS
⚽ 62' Borja Iglesias
Alex Baena
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Alex Baena
Atletico Madrid · 69 mins
· 35% pass acc
RATING
8.5
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.04
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.13
56%
BALL POSSESSION %
44%
21
TOTAL SHOTS
3
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
1
90%
PASS ACCURACY %
86%
10
CORNERS
0
KEY EVENTS 14 events
  1. 19'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ilaix Moriba
    CEL
  2. 20'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    José María Giménez · assist Robin Le Normand
    ATL
  3. 60'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Ademola Lookman · assist Nahuel Molina
    ATL
  4. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Antoine Griezmann · assist Thiago Almada
    ATL
  5. 62'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Borja Iglesias · assist Williot Swedberg
    CEL
  6. 66'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Alex Baena
    ATL
  7. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Borja Iglesias · assist Ferran Jutglà
    CEL
  8. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Pablo Durán · assist Iago Aspas
    CEL
  9. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Alvaro Núñez · assist Sergio Carreira
    CEL
  10. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Alex Baena · assist Obed Vargas
    ATL
  11. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Robin Le Normand · assist Miguel Cubo
    ATL
  12. 77'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Fer López
    CEL
  13. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Williot Swedberg · assist Hugo Álvarez
    CEL
  14. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Óscar Mingueza · assist Mihailo Ristić
    CEL
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ATLETICO MADRID AVG 7.5
CELTA VIGO AVG 7.6
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.0
xG
0.1
21.0
TOTAL SHOTS
3.0
4.0
ON TARGET
1.0
11.0
OFF TARGET
1.0
6.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
56.0%
POSSESSION %
44.0%
560.0
PASSES
468.0
90.0%
PASS ACCURACY
86.0%
SET PIECES
10.0
CORNERS
0.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
5.0
DISCIPLINE
11.0
FOULS
13.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
0.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ATLETICO MADRID 2 shots
Marcos Llorente
0/1
Thiago Almada
0/1
CELTA VIGO 1 shots
Borja Iglesias
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.04 – 0.13
1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 2.0 0.0 HT 62' H 2.04 A 0.13 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 43%
57% A
6
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-4-2 vs 3-4-2-1
4-4-2
3-4-2-1
13
JAN OBLAK
3
MATTEO RU
17
DáVID HAN
 7.2
2
JOSé MARí
18
MARC PUBI
22
ADEMOLA L
 8.5
10
ALEX BAEN
 7.7
6
KOKE
 7.2
14
MARCOS LL
9
ALEXANDER
7
ANTOINE G
 7.6
13
IONUț RAD
20
MARCOS AL
 7.7
29
YOEL LAGO
 8.3
32
JAVI RODR
 7.3
3
ÓSCAR MIN
6
ILAIX MOR
8
FER LóPEZ
14
ALVARO Nú
19
WILLIOT S
18
PABLO DUR
 7.3
7
BORJA IGL
SUBSTITUTES · ATLETICO MADRID
15
Clément Leng...
D
34
Julio Díaz
M
4
Rodrigo Mend...
M
47
Javi Morcill...
M
31
Salvi Esquiv...
G
1
Juan Musso
G
61
Miguel Cubo
F
21
Obed Vargas
M
11
Thiago Almad...
M
16
Nahuel Molin...
D
24
Robin Le Nor...
D
37
Iker Luque
F
COACH: Diego Simeone
SUBSTITUTES · CELTA VIGO
12
Manu Fernánd...
D
4
Joseph Aidoo
D
22
Hugo Sotelo
M
36
Andrés Antañ...
M
24
Carlos Domín...
D
1
Iván Villar
G
21
Mihailo Rist...
D
23
Hugo Álvarez
M
10
Iago Aspas
F
9
Ferran Jutgl...
F
5
Sergio Carre...
D
39
Jones El-Abd...
F
COACH: Claudio Giraldez
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ATL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

CEL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
I. Galech
—
ATL MANAGER
Diego Simeone
head coach
CEL MANAGER
Claudio Giraldez
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
7
ATL WINS
3
DRAWS
0
CEL WINS
70%
30%
16 – 4
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
05 Oct 2025
Celta Vigo
1 – 1
Atletico Madrid
D
15 Feb 2025
Atletico Madrid
1 – 1
Celta Vigo
D
26 Sep 2024
Celta Vigo
0 – 1
Atletico Madrid
W
12 May 2024
Atletico Madrid
1 – 0
Celta Vigo
W
21 Oct 2023
Celta Vigo
0 – 3
Atletico Madrid
W
ATLETICO MADRID LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W L W
CELTA VIGO LAST 5 OVERALL
W D L W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 0–1 · result locked
ATLETICO MADRID #4
Lost · already at 69 pts
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
CELTA VIGO #6
Won · already at 54 pts
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Barcelona 38 31 1 6 +59 94
L W L W W
2 Real Madrid 38 27 5 6 +42 86
W W W L W
3 Villarreal 38 22 6 10 +26 72
W L L D W
4 Atletico Madrid 38 21 6 11 +18 69
L W W L W
5 Real Betis 38 15 15 8 +11 60
W L W D W
6 Celta Vigo 38 14 12 12 +5 54
W D L W W
7 Getafe 38 15 6 17 -6 51
W L W D L
8 Rayo Vallecano 38 12 14 12 -3 50
W W D D W
9 Valencia 38 13 10 15 -9 49
W W D W L
10 Real Sociedad 38 11 13 14 -2 46
D L D D L
11 Espanyol 38 12 10 16 -12 46
D W W L L
12 Athletic Club 38 13 6 19 -15 45
L D L L W
13 Sevilla 38 12 7 19 -14 43
L L W W W
14 Alaves 38 11 10 17 -12 43
L W W D L
15 Elche 38 10 13 15 -8 43
D W L D L
16 Levante 38 11 9 18 -14 42
L W W W L
17 Osasuna 38 11 9 18 -6 42
L L L L L
18 Mallorca 38 11 9 18 -10 42
W L L D W
19 Girona 38 9 14 15 -16 41
D L D D L
20 Oviedo 38 6 11 21 -34 29
L L L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Óscar Mingueza
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Williot Swedberg
  • 77'
    Card · Yellow Card · Fer López
    Foul
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Robin Le Normand
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Alex Baena
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Alvaro Núñez
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Pablo Durán
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Borja Iglesias
  • 66'
    Card · Yellow Card · Alex Baena
    misses next match
  • 62'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Borja Iglesias
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Antoine Griezmann
  • 60'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Ademola Lookman
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 20'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · José María Giménez
  • 19'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ilaix Moriba
    Tripping
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
ATLETICO MADRID WIN
2.12
47.2% implied
↑ best 2.17
DRAW
3.51
28.5% implied
↑ best 3.66
CELTA VIGO WIN
3.38
29.6% implied
↑ best 3.54

Market favors Atletico Madrid. AI projects ATLETICO MADRID 48%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ATLETICO MADRID 48% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.12 3.50 3.20 +2.4%
1xBet 2.17 3.66 3.54 +3.7%
888Sport 2.10 3.30 3.30 +0.7%
Bet365 2.15 3.50 3.30 +2.4%
Betano 2.10 3.60 3.40 +3.2%
Betfair 2.10 3.50 3.40 +2.4%
BetVictor 2.10 3.50 3.40 +2.4%
Dafabet 2.10 3.60 3.50 +3.2%
Marathonbet 2.16 3.55 3.48 +2.8%
Pinnacle 2.14 3.66 3.48 +3.7%
SBO 2.12 3.47 3.13 +2.2%
Unibet 2.12 3.45 3.45 +2.0%
William Hill 2.10 3.40 3.30 +1.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.21 U 4.19
2.5 O 1.69 U 2.18
3.5 O 2.64 U 1.47
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.56 10 bks
NO
2.31 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.01
Away -0.5 1.73
Away -0.75 1.56
Away -1 1.39
Away -1.25 1.30
Away -1.5 1.26
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.