GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · AROUCA 38%
CONF 48 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 34 · SAT, 16 MAY · 17:00 LOCAL
AROUCA
8TH · 42 PTS · LAST 5:
W D L W L
FT
3 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 1-0
TONDELA
W W D L L
· 17TH · 28 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 20' Taichi Fukui ⚽ 77' Alfonso Trezza ⚽ 85' Hyun-ju Lee
GOALS
⚽ 65' Rony Lopes
Taichi Fukui
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Taichi Fukui
Arouca · 79 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 26% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.7
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 5 CLIPS

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Primeira Liga: Arouca vs Tondela
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Primeira Liga: Arouca vs Tondela
Primeira Liga: Arouca vs Tondela
Primeira Liga: Arouca vs Tondela
Primeira Liga: Arouca vs Tondela
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.53
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.51
53%
BALL POSSESSION %
47%
16
TOTAL SHOTS
11
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
2
81%
PASS ACCURACY %
81%
5
CORNERS
6
KEY EVENTS 18 events
  1. 20'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Taichi Fukui
    ARO
  2. 39'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Omar Fayed
    ARO
  3. 41'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Cicero
    TON
  4. 41'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Bas Kuipers
    ARO
  5. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Omar Fayed · assist Diogo Monteiro
    ARO
  6. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Cicero · assist Hélder Tavares
    TON
  7. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Ivan Barbero · assist Dylan Nandín
    ARO
  8. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Naïs Djouahra · assist Hyun-ju Lee
    ARO
  9. 65'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Rony Lopes · assist Makan Aïko
    TON
  10. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Makan Aïko · assist Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka
    TON
  11. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Hugo Félix · assist Joe Hodge
    TON
  12. 77'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Alfonso Trezza · assist Tiago Esgaio
    ARO
  13. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Pablo Gozálbez · assist Pedro Santos
    ARO
  14. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Taichi Fukui · assist Mateo Flores
    ARO
  15. 81'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Hyun-ju Lee
    ARO
  16. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Rodrigo Conceição · assist Arjen Van Der Heide
    TON
  17. 82'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Maranhão · assist João Afonso
    TON
  18. 85'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Hyun-ju Lee · assist Dylan Nandín
    ARO
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
AROUCA AVG 7.9
TONDELA AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.5
xG
0.5
16.0
TOTAL SHOTS
11.0
4.0
ON TARGET
2.0
8.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
4.0
BLOCKED
6.0
POSSESSION
53.0%
POSSESSION %
47.0%
452.0
PASSES
398.0
81.0%
PASS ACCURACY
81.0%
SET PIECES
5.0
CORNERS
6.0
3.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
12.0
FOULS
12.0
3.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
1.0
GK SAVES
1.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
AROUCA 8 shots
Alfonso Trezza
2/4
Taichi Fukui
1/2
Tiago Esgaio
0/1
Hyun-ju Lee
1/1
TONDELA 3 shots
Rony Lopes
1/2
Maranhão
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.53 – 0.51
1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.0 HT 20' 77' 85' 65' H 1.53 A 0.51 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 61%
39% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-3
4-2-3-1
3-4-3
12
IGNACIO D
25
BAS KUIPE
15
JAVI SáNC
66
OMAR FAYE
 8.3
28
TIAGO ESG
 8.7
21
TAICHI FU
22
ESPEN VAN
7
NAïS DJOU
10
PABLO GOZ
 8.2
19
ALFONSO T
17
IVAN BARB
31
BERNARDO
32
JUAN RODR
 6.9
4
CHRISTIAN
 7.0
44
JOãO SILV
27
RODRIGO C
79
HUGO FéLI
97
CICERO
48
TIAGO MAN
 7.0
90
MAKAN AïK
 7.7
16
RONY LOPE
 6.9
7
MARANHãO
SUBSTITUTES · AROUCA
24
Brian Mansil...
F
2
José Silva
D
30
Jakub Vinarč...
G
89
Pedro Santos
M
46
Mateo Flores
M
23
Dylan Nandín
F
14
Hyun-ju Lee
M
6
Diogo Montei...
D
9
Fally Mayulu
F
COACH: Vasco Seabra
SUBSTITUTES · TONDELA
15
Siphephelo S...
M
2
Bebeto
D
1
Gabriel Souz...
G
5
João Afonso
D
26
Arjen Van De...
F
23
Benjamin Mbu...
F
10
Joe Hodge
M
8
Hélder Tavar...
M
29
Jordan Sieba...
F
COACH: Goncalo Feio
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ARO · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

TON · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
A. Nobre
—
ARO MANAGER
Vasco Seabra
head coach
TON MANAGER
Goncalo Feio
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
ARO WINS
3
DRAWS
2
TON WINS
37.5%
37.5%
25%
10 – 9
TOTAL GOALS · 8 MEETINGS
2.38
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 9
03 Jan 2026
Tondela
3 – 1
Arouca
L
19 Mar 2022
Tondela
2 – 2
Arouca
D
29 Oct 2021
Arouca
2 – 0
Tondela
W
13 May 2017
Arouca
1 – 2
Tondela
L
08 Jan 2017
Tondela
1 – 2
Arouca
W
AROUCA LAST 5 OVERALL
W D L W L
TONDELA LAST 5 OVERALL
W W D L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–1 · result locked
AROUCA #8
Won · already at 42 pts
TONDELA #17
Lost · already at 28 pts
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 +48 88
W L W W W
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 +65 82
W W W D D
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 +49 80
W D D W W
4 SC Braga 34 16 11 7 +28 59
D D D L W
5 Famalicao 34 15 11 8 +13 56
W D D W D
6 GIL Vicente 34 13 11 10 +9 50
L L D W L
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 -12 43
D L W L W
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 -17 42
W W D L W
9 Guimaraes 34 12 6 16 -12 42
L L L W W
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 -3 39
L D D L L
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 -17 39
L D L W L
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 -22 36
D L D L D
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 -9 36
L W D W D
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 -8 34
W L L W W
15 Estrela 34 6 12 16 -18 30
D D L L L
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 -26 30
D W L L L
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 -28 28
L W W D L
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 -40 21
D W W D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 85'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Hyun-ju Lee
  • 82'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Maranhão
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Rodrigo Conceição
  • 81'
    Card · Yellow Card · Hyun-ju Lee
    misses next match
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Taichi Fukui
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Pablo Gozálbez
  • 77'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Alfonso Trezza
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Hugo Félix
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Makan Aïko
  • 65'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Rony Lopes
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Naïs Djouahra
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Ivan Barbero
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Cicero
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Omar Fayed
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 0
  • 41'
    Card · Yellow Card · Bas Kuipers
  • 41'
    Card · Yellow Card · Cicero
  • 39'
    Card · Yellow Card · Omar Fayed
  • 20'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Taichi Fukui
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
AROUCA WIN
3.04
32.9% implied
↑ best 3.15
DRAW
3.44
29.1% implied
↑ best 3.60
TONDELA WIN
2.24
44.6% implied
↑ best 2.36

Market favors Tondela. AI projects AROUCA 38%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS AROUCA 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.00 3.45 2.24 +4.7%
1xBet 3.06 3.58 2.36 +5.3%
Bet365 3.10 3.40 2.25 +5.7%
Betano 3.00 3.50 2.32 +4.7%
Betfair 3.00 3.30 2.30 +4.7%
BetVictor 3.00 3.40 2.15 +4.7%
Dafabet 3.10 3.55 2.29 +5.7%
Marathonbet 2.94 3.44 2.27 +4.0%
Pinnacle 3.15 3.54 2.28 +6.3%
SBO 3.01 3.18 2.08 +4.8%
Unibet 3.10 3.60 2.14 +5.7%
William Hill 3.00 3.30 2.25 +4.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.24 U 3.69
2.5 O 1.83 U 1.96
3.5 O 3.00 U 1.35
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.65 9 bks
NO
2.12 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.48
Away -0.5 1.37
Away -0.75 1.26
Away -1 1.13
Away -1.25 1.09
Away -1.5 1.09
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.