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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 3–2 · ARGENTINA 96% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
World Cup · ROUND OF 16 · TUE, 07 JUL · 16:00 LOCAL
ARGENTINA
1ST · 9 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W W W
FT
3 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
EGYPT
D D W D W
· 2ND · 5 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 21' L. Messi (P) ⚽ 79' C. Romero ⚽ 83' L. Messi ⚽ 90+2' E. Fernández
GOALS
⚽ 15' Yasser Ibrahim ⚽ 67' Mostafa Zico
L. Messi
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
L. Messi
Argentina · Captain · 102 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 🅰 1 assist · 42% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
9.0
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.90
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.97
64%
BALL POSSESSION %
36%
19
TOTAL SHOTS
5
7
SHOTS ON TARGET
2
90%
PASS ACCURACY %
83%
6
CORNERS
1
KEY EVENTS 21 events
  1. 15'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Yasser Ibrahim · assist Marwan Attia
    EGY
  2. 21'
    Goal · Missed Penalty
    L. Messi · assist L. Messi
    ARG
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Emam Ashour · assist Hamdi Fathy
    EGY
  4. 58'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - Foul
    Mostafa Zico
    EGY
  5. 66'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Nicolás Tagliafico · assist N. González
    ARG
  6. 66'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    R. De Paul · assist Lautaro Martínez
    ARG
  7. 67'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Mostafa Zico · assist H. Hassan
    EGY
  8. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    N. Molina · assist Gonzalo Montiel
    ARG
  9. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    H. Hassan · assist Trézéguet
    EGY
  10. 79'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    C. Romero · assist L. Messi
    ARG
  11. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Mostafa Zico · assist Omar Marmoush
    EGY
  12. 83'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    L. Messi · assist Gonzalo Montiel
    ARG
  13. 90'+2
    Goal · Normal Goal
    E. Fernández · assist Lautaro Martínez
    ARG
  14. 90'+3
    Card · Yellow Card
    Mostafa Shobeir
    EGY
  15. 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Hamdi Fathy
    EGY
  16. 90'+5
    Subst · Substitution 4
    C. Romero · assist Nicolás Otamendi
    ARG
  17. 90'+5
    Subst · Substitution 5
    J. Álvarez · assist F. Medina
    ARG
  18. 90'+6
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Mohanad Lasheen · assist Zizo
    EGY
  19. 90'+8
    Card · Yellow Card
    Marwan Attia
    EGY
  20. 90'+9
    Card · Yellow Card
    H. Hassan
    EGY
  21. 90'+12
    Card · Yellow Card
    H. Hassan
    EGY
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ARGENTINA AVG 8.1
EGYPT AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.9
xG
1.0
19.0
TOTAL SHOTS
5.0
7.0
ON TARGET
2.0
8.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
4.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
64.0%
POSSESSION %
36.0%
602.0
PASSES
348.0
90.0%
PASS ACCURACY
83.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
1.0
3.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
13.0
FOULS
11.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
0.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ARGENTINA 9 shots
L. Messi
2/4
Lautaro Martínez
0/2
L. Paredes
0/1
E. Fernández
1/1
C. Romero
1/1
EGYPT 2 shots
Mostafa Zico
1/1
Yasser Ibrahim
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.90 – 0.97
2.3 1.7 1.2 0.6 2.9 0.0 HT 21' 79' 83' 90' 15' 67' H 2.90 A 0.97 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 43%
57% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
12
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-1-3-2 vs 4-4-2
4-1-3-2
4-4-2
23
E. MARTíN
3
NICOLáS T
6
LISANDRO
 7.9
13
C. ROMERO
26
N. MOLINA
 8.2
5
L. PAREDE
 8.0
24
E. FERNáN
20
A. MAC AL
7
R. DE PAU
9
J. ÁLVARE
 9.0
10
L. MESSI
 7.2
23
MOSTAFA S
15
KARIM HAF
 6.9
5
RAMI RABI
 7.2
2
YASSER IB
3
MOHAMED H
8
EMAM ASHO
19
MARWAN AT
17
MOHANAD L
12
H. HASSAN
 7.7
11
MOSTAFA Z
 6.7
10
MOHAMED S
SUBSTITUTES · ARGENTINA
8
V. Barco
M
11
Giovani Lo C...
M
14
E. Palacios
M
16
T. Almada
M
17
G. Simeone
F
18
N. Paz
F
2
M. Senesi
D
1
J. Musso
G
12
G. Rulli
G
25
F. Medina
D
19
Nicolás Otam...
D
4
Gonzalo Mont...
D
22
Lautaro Mart...
F
15
N. González
F
21
J. López
F
COACH: Lionel Scaloni
SUBSTITUTES · EGYPT
24
T. Alaa
D
4
Hossam Abdel...
D
20
Ibrahim Adel
F
21
Mahmoud Sabe...
M
18
Nabil Donga
M
16
Al Mahdi Sol...
G
26
Mohamed Alaa
G
1
Mohamed El-S...
G
25
Zizo
F
22
Omar Marmous...
F
7
Trézéguet
F
14
Hamdi Fathy
M
9
Hamza Abdelk...
F
COACH: Hossam Hassan
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ARG · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

EGY · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
François Letexier, France
—
ARG MANAGER
Lionel Scaloni
head coach
EGY MANAGER
Hossam Hassan
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
ARG WINS
1
DRAWS
0
EGY WINS
100%
ARGENTINA LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W W W
EGYPT LAST 5 OVERALL
D D W D W
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–2 · result locked
ARGENTINA #1
Won · already at 9 pts
Round of 32
EGYPT #2
Lost · already at 5 pts
Round of 32
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 +6 9
L W W W W
1 Congo DR 3 1 1 1 +1 4
L W L D
1 England 3 2 1 0 +4 7
W L W W W
1 Colombia 3 2 1 0 +3 7
L W D W W
1 Argentina 3 3 0 0 +7 9
L W W W W
1 France 3 3 0 0 +8 9
L L W W W
1 Spain 3 2 1 0 +5 7
W W W W W
1 Belgium 3 1 2 0 +4 5
L W W W D
1 Netherlands 3 2 1 0 +6 7
L W W D
1 Germany 3 2 0 1 +6 6
L L W W
1 USA 3 2 0 1 +4 6
L W L W W
1 Brazil 3 2 1 0 +6 7
L W W W D
1 Switzerland 3 2 1 0 +4 7
L W W W W
2 Norway 3 2 0 1 +1 6
L W W L W
2 Austria 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
2 Portugal 3 1 2 0 +5 5
L W D W D
2 Croatia 3 2 0 1 0 6
L W W L
2 Sweden 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
2 Cape Verde Islands 3 0 3 0 0 3
L D D D
2 Egypt 3 1 2 0 +2 5
L W D W D
2 Japan 3 1 2 0 +4 5
L D W D
2 Ivory Coast 3 2 0 1 +2 6
L W L W
2 Australia 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
2 Morocco 3 2 1 0 +3 7
L W W W W
2 Canada 3 1 1 1 +5 4
L W L W D
2 South Africa 3 1 1 1 -1 4
L W D L
3 Senegal 3 1 0 2 +2 3
L W L L
3 Algeria 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L D W L
3 Congo DR 3 1 1 1 +1 4
L W L D
3 Ghana 3 1 1 1 0 4
L L D W
3 Ghana 3 1 1 1 0 4
L L D W
3 Uruguay 3 0 2 1 -1 2
L D D
3 Iran 3 0 3 0 0 3
D D D
3 Sweden 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
3 Ecuador 3 1 1 1 0 4
L W D L
3 Paraguay 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L W D W L
3 Scotland 3 1 0 2 -3 3
L L W
3 Bosnia & Herzegovina 3 1 1 1 -1 4
L W L D
3 South Korea 3 1 0 2 -1 3
L L W
4 Iraq 3 0 0 3 -11 0
L L L
4 Jordan 3 0 0 3 -5 0
L L L
4 Uzbekistan 3 0 0 3 -9 0
L L L
4 Panama 3 0 0 3 -4 0
L L L
4 Ecuador 3 1 1 1 0 4
L W D L
4 Saudi Arabia 3 0 2 1 -4 2
D L D
4 New Zealand 3 0 1 2 -6 1
L L D
4 Tunisia 3 0 0 3 -10 0
L L L
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 -4 1
L D L
4 Qatar 3 0 1 2 -8 1
L L D
4 Haiti 3 0 0 3 -6 0
L L L
4 Türkiye 3 1 0 2 -2 3
W L L
4 Curaçao 3 0 1 2 -8 1
L D L
5 Bosnia & Herzegovina 3 1 1 1 -1 4
L W L D
5 New Zealand 1 0 1 0 0 1
D
6 Spain 1 0 1 0 0 1
D
6 Algeria 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L D W L
7 Croatia 2 1 0 1 -1 3
W L
7 Portugal 1 0 1 0 0 1
W D
7 Paraguay 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L W D W L
8 Senegal 3 1 0 2 +2 3
L W L L
9 Czech Republic 2 0 1 1 -1 1
D L
9 Saudi Arabia 2 0 1 1 -4 1
L D
9 Iran 3 0 3 0 0 3
D D D
10 South Korea 3 1 0 2 -1 3
L L W
10 Cape Verde Islands 2 0 2 0 0 2
D D
10 Belgium 2 0 2 0 0 2
D D
11 Scotland 3 1 0 2 -3 3
L L W
11 Panama 1 0 0 1 -1 0
L
11 Jordan 1 0 0 1 -2 0
L
12 Uruguay 3 0 2 1 -1 2
L D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+12
    Card · Yellow Card · H. Hassan
    misses next match
  • 90'+9
    Card · Yellow Card · H. Hassan
  • 90'+8
    Card · Yellow Card · Marwan Attia
    Holding
  • 90'+6
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Mohanad Lasheen
  • 90'+5
    Subst · Substitution 5 · J. Álvarez
  • 90'+5
    Subst · Substitution 4 · C. Romero
  • 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Hamdi Fathy
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 90'+3
    Card · Yellow Card · Mostafa Shobeir
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 90'+2
    Goal · Normal Goal · E. Fernández
  • 83'
    Goal · Normal Goal · L. Messi
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Mostafa Zico
  • 79'
    Goal · Normal Goal · C. Romero
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · H. Hassan
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · N. Molina
  • 67'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Mostafa Zico
  • 66'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · R. De Paul
  • 66'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Nicolás Tagliafico
  • 58'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - Foul · Mostafa Zico
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Emam Ashour
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 21'
    Goal · Missed Penalty · L. Messi
  • 15'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Yasser Ibrahim
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
ARGENTINA WIN
1.34
74.6% implied
↑ best 1.39
DRAW
4.82
20.7% implied
↑ best 5.00
EGYPT WIN
10.68
9.4% implied
↑ best 12.00

Market favors Argentina. AI projects ARGENTINA 96% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ARGENTINA 96% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.31 4.60 11.00 +19.7%
1xBet 1.37 4.98 11.50 +23.0%
888Sport 1.30 4.50 10.00 +19.1%
Bet365 1.33 4.75 11.00 +20.8%
Betano 1.39 4.80 10.25 +24.1%
Betfair 1.33 4.75 11.00 +20.8%
BetVictor 1.29 5.00 11.00 +18.5%
Dafabet 1.35 5.00 10.00 +21.9%
Marathonbet 1.34 4.85 10.50 +21.4%
Pinnacle 1.36 4.90 12.00 +22.5%
SBO 1.34 5.00 9.60 +21.4%
Unibet 1.33 4.90 11.00 +20.8%
William Hill 1.33 4.60 10.00 +20.8%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.28 U 3.46
2.5 O 1.93 U 1.87
3.5 O 3.33 U 1.30
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
2.37 10 bks
NO
1.55 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 4.42
Away -0.5 3.34
Away -0.75 2.88
Away -1 2.55
Away -1.25 2.07
Away -1.5 1.81
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.