GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · DRAW 50% · Value: BTTS Yes 64%
CONF 61 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 33 · SUN, 10 MAY · 19:30 LOCAL
ALVERCA
11TH · 39 PTS · LAST 5:
L L W L W
FT
1 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 1-0
ESTORIL
L D L L L
· 10TH · 39 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 12' Figueiredo
GOALS
⚽ 47' André Lacximicant
Figueiredo
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Figueiredo
Alverca · 90 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 28% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 4 CLIPS

powered by Highlightly
Resumo: Alverca 1-1 Estoril (Liga 25/26 #33)
Open in Youtube ↗
Primeira Liga: Alverca vs Estoril
Primeira Liga: Alverca vs Estoril
Primeira Liga: Alverca vs Estoril
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.27
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.89
42%
BALL POSSESSION %
58%
8
TOTAL SHOTS
10
1
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
81%
PASS ACCURACY %
86%
4
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 12'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Figueiredo · assist Nabil Touaizi
    ALV
  2. 45'+3
    Card · Yellow Card
    Antef Tsoungui
    EST
  3. 45'+3
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rhaldney
    ALV
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Ferro · assist Gonçalo Costa
    EST
  5. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Pedro Amaral · assist André Lacximicant
    EST
  6. 47'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    André Lacximicant · assist Gonçalo Costa
    EST
  7. 56'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Bastien Meupiyou
    ALV
  8. 66'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Diogo Spencer
    ALV
  9. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Xeka · assist Kévin Boma
    EST
  10. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Rhaldney · assist Vasco Moreira
    ALV
  11. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Sandro Lima · assist Felipe Lima
    ALV
  12. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Ricard Sánchez · assist Pedro Carvalho
    EST
  13. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Rafik Guitane · assist Peixinho
    EST
  14. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Bastien Meupiyou · assist Steven Baseya
    ALV
  15. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Davy Gui · assist Cédric Nuozzi
    ALV
  16. 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Pedro Carvalho
    EST
  17. 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Kaiky Naves
    ALV
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ALVERCA AVG 7.2
ESTORIL AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.3
xG
0.9
8.0
TOTAL SHOTS
10.0
1.0
ON TARGET
3.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
6.0
3.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
42.0%
POSSESSION %
58.0%
355.0
PASSES
487.0
81.0%
PASS ACCURACY
86.0%
SET PIECES
4.0
CORNERS
4.0
3.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
19.0
FOULS
15.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
2.0
GK SAVES
0.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ALVERCA 2 shots
Figueiredo
1/1
Nabil Touaizi
0/1
ESTORIL 5 shots
Rafik Guitane
0/2
André Lacximicant
1/1
Antef Tsoungui
0/1
Ricard Sánchez
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.27 – 0.89
1 0.8 0.5 0.3 1.3 0.0 HT 12' 47' H 1.27 A 0.89 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-2-1 vs 3-4-2-1
3-4-2-1
3-4-2-1
31
MATHEUS M
33
BASTIEN M
5
SERGI GóM
4
KAIKY NAV
 6.6
82
DIOGO SPE
 6.9
6
DAVY GUI
 7.3
18
LINCOLN
 6.9
2
NABIL TOU
 8.2
20
FIGUEIRED
26
RHALDNEY
91
SANDRO LI
1
JOEL ROBL
 7.2
5
ANTEF TSO
 6.9
4
FERRO
25
FELIX BAC
24
PEDRO AMA
10
JORDAN HO
8
XEKA
 7.0
2
RICARD Sá
12
JOãO CARV
 6.9
99
RAFIK GUI
14
YANIS BEG
SUBSTITUTES · ALVERCA
77
Felipe Lima
F
11
Cédric Nuozz...
F
35
Zakaria Kass...
M
17
Vasco Moreir...
M
14
Steven Basey...
D
37
Kauan Gomes
D
1
Mateus Olive...
G
25
Stéphane Dia...
F
COACH: Custodio
SUBSTITUTES · ESTORIL
70
Peixinho
F
21
Pizzi
M
7
Nodar Lomina...
M
22
Pedro Carval...
D
44
Kévin Boma
D
31
Diogo Dias
G
19
André Lacxim...
F
20
Gonçalo Cost...
D
9
Alejandro Ma...
F
COACH: Ian Cathro
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ALV · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

EST · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
I. Vasilica
—
ALV MANAGER
Custodio
head coach
EST MANAGER
Ian Cathro
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
ALV WINS
0
DRAWS
1
EST WINS
50%
50%
3 – 5
TOTAL GOALS · 2 MEETINGS
4.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 1 / 2
27 Dec 2025
Estoril
4 – 1
Alverca
L
ALVERCA LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W L W
ESTORIL LAST 5 OVERALL
L D L L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–1 · result locked
ALVERCA #11
Lost · already at 39 pts
ESTORIL #10
Lost · already at 39 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 +48 88
W L W W W
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 +65 82
W W W D D
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 +49 80
W D D W W
4 SC Braga 34 16 11 7 +28 59
D D D L W
5 Famalicao 34 15 11 8 +13 56
W D D W D
6 GIL Vicente 34 13 11 10 +9 50
L L D W L
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 -12 43
D L W L W
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 -17 42
W W D L W
9 Guimaraes 34 12 6 16 -12 42
L L L W W
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 -3 39
L D D L L
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 -17 39
L D L W L
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 -22 36
D L D L D
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 -9 36
L W D W D
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 -8 34
W L L W W
15 Estrela 34 6 12 16 -18 30
D D L L L
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 -26 30
D W L L L
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 -28 28
L W W D L
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 -40 21
D W W D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Kaiky Naves
  • 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Pedro Carvalho
    misses next match
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Davy Gui
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Bastien Meupiyou
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Rafik Guitane
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Ricard Sánchez
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Sandro Lima
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Rhaldney
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Xeka
  • 66'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Diogo Spencer
  • 56'
    Card · Yellow Card · Bastien Meupiyou
  • 47'
    Goal · Normal Goal · André Lacximicant
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Pedro Amaral
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Ferro
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 0
  • 45'+3
    Card · Yellow Card · Rhaldney
  • 45'+3
    Card · Yellow Card · Antef Tsoungui
    misses next match
  • 12'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Figueiredo
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
ALVERCA WIN
2.49
40.2% implied
↑ best 2.58
DRAW
3.49
28.7% implied
↑ best 3.65
ESTORIL WIN
2.66
37.6% implied
↑ best 2.80

Market favors Alverca. AI projects DRAW 50% · value bet BTTS Yes.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DRAW 50% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.42 3.45 2.70 +21.0%
1xBet 2.58 3.60 2.74 +22.2%
888Sport 2.50 3.30 2.63 +19.7%
Bet365 2.50 3.50 2.62 +21.4%
Betano 2.57 3.50 2.67 +21.4%
Betfair 2.50 3.50 2.63 +21.4%
BetVictor 2.40 3.50 2.55 +21.4%
Dafabet 2.50 3.65 2.75 +22.6%
Marathonbet 2.48 3.46 2.63 +21.1%
Pinnacle 2.56 3.60 2.70 +22.2%
SBO 2.43 3.42 2.59 +20.8%
Unibet 2.38 3.55 2.80 +21.8%
William Hill 2.50 3.30 2.62 +19.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.19 U 4.27
2.5 O 1.66 U 2.18
3.5 O 2.59 U 1.45
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.53 10 bks
NO
2.35 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.69
Away -0.5 1.53
Away -0.75 1.37
Away -1 1.23
Away -1.25 1.20
Away -1.5 1.15
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.